How a blocked Iranian plane set off the Houthis' latest escalation with Saudi Arabia
With Saudi forces building up in Yemen, the Houthis realized that they have to act now, before their opposition becomes too strong and might actually threaten their decade-long rule over Yemen
"Yemen today faces a greater risk of renewed large-scale conflict than at any point since the UN-brokered truce of April 2022." This stark warning by the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, comes amid the latest escalation between the Iranian-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia, including attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as well as strikes on Saudi and Yemeni government forces across the country.
"These developments risk jeopardizing the gains of the 2022 truce, reflected in the relative calm that has held inside Yemen in recent years, while also drawing the country into a broader regional confrontation, with devastating consequences for its people," Grundberg warned.
While the war between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen's internationally recognized government has been ongoing since 2014, the conflict largely subdued following a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022 and understandings reached in Oman a year later.
But over the past month, dozens of Houthis and Yemeni government military personnel have been killed in a series of attacks and clashes. The back-and-forth attacks started on July 13 with a Saudi airstrike that hit the runway of the airport in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, preventing the landing of an Iranian flight carrying a high-ranking Houthi delegation.
So how did a blocked Iranian flight to Yemen set off the Houthis’ latest spiral with Saudi Arabia? While this incident is believed to be the spark that renewed the fighting, it isn't the only explanation, and there are some other critical developments that contributed to the recent escalation.
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The first development is the breakdown of the Oman Agreement. In recent months, the Houthis have become increasingly frustrated by the Saudis, who the Houthis claim backed out of the understandings reached in Oman, particularly regarding civil service salary payments and fully reopening Sana'a Airport.
The second development is the recent Saudi military mobilization in Yemen. Alongside the stalled negotiations, there has been a significant military buildup away from the media spotlight. This prompted the Houthis to announce general mobilization and step up their rhetoric against Saudi Arabia, which later transitioned into direct attacks.
As for the targeting of Al-Mocha port, reports indicate that large shipments of military equipment were unloaded there by Saudi forces in recent days in preparation for renewed operations against the Houthis.
With Saudi forces building up in Yemen, while also bolstering the capabilities of the internationally recognized government forces, the Houthis realized that they have to act now, before their opposition becomes too strong and might actually threaten their decade-long rule over Yemen. This military consolidation is what triggered the intensified Houthi strikes not just on Al Mocha port, but on several military positions across Yemen.
The ongoing war in Yemen has turned the country into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, and people living in the Houthi-held territories are the hungriest. Six years of intense strikes by the Saudi-led coalition weren't enough to overthrow them. And now, with Iran trying to revive its network of proxies, it seems that the situation in Yemen is expected to get a lot worse, with no apparent end in sight.