Links without formal ties: Indonesia signals potential normalization with Israel

Indonesia has indicated it could move toward formal diplomatic relations with Israel, linking any potential recognition to Israel’s acknowledgment of a Palestinian state. President Prabowo Subianto outlined his stance during a UN General Assembly speech in September 2025, saying, “We must have an independent Palestinian state. We must also recognize, we must also respect, and we must also ensure the security of Israel. Only then can we achieve true peace,” concluding with the Hebrew word “Shalom.”

Prabowo’s remarks were described by analysts as pragmatic and businesslike. Dr. Giora Eliraz of the Truman Institute at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem said, “He is a very complex figure. A very pragmatic man, very assertive, very forceful, and very businesslike.” Professor Greg Barton of Deakin University added, “President Prabowo is definitely in favor of the attempt to normalize relations. He would rather do something positive in order to improve the situation than say that until things change, nothing can be done.”

Despite these indications, normalization remains politically sensitive. Indonesia has historically opposed full recognition of Israel, influenced by strong domestic support for Palestinian sovereignty. Polls conducted in 2025 showed that 75 percent of Indonesians oppose normalization with Israel, while 80 percent hold negative views toward Israel. Past efforts, including proposed participation in international sports events, have faced public and political backlash.

In recent years, Indonesia has maintained limited contact with Israel, including issuing visas to Israeli travelers and engaging in discreet business cooperation. Israeli tourism to the country continues, with 5,000 to 6,000 Israeli visitors traveling to Bali in 2025 alone, often for extended stays of two weeks or more. Analysts suggest that incremental steps such as tourism and trade could lay the groundwork for broader diplomatic engagement.

Dan Shapiro, former US envoy for the Abraham Accords, revealed that prior to October 7, 2023, a two-stage approach to normalization was being considered. The first phase would allow trade, tourism, and travel, followed by potential formal diplomatic relations. He noted, “Indonesian soldiers in Gaza within a stabilization force, which they will also describe as a contribution to establishing the foundation for a future Palestinian state — this will make it easier for them politically at home to justify future normalization with Israel.”

In line with this approach, Indonesia announced plans to send up to 8,000 troops to Gaza for peacekeeping missions as part of a multinational stabilization force. Experts caution that deployment carries risks, with Professor Barton noting that casualties among peacekeeping forces could provoke domestic backlash, complicating normalization efforts.

While the timeline remains uncertain, President Prabowo affirmed that “Indonesia has already stated that the moment Israel recognizes the State of Palestine, we will be ready to recognize Israel and we are ready to open diplomatic relations with Israel.” The question now appears not to be whether normalization will occur, but when.