US cannot give Tehran what it needs, and Iran cannot give Trump what he needs - analysis
'The US cannot give Tehran what it needs, and the IRGC cannot give Trump what he needs. Anything resembling an agreement, based on what the sides need to get out of it politically, has been impossible
It is absolutely stunning that every time the American administration, either through on-record or on-background comments, says that a deal with Iran is close, imminent, reachable, will be done by tomorrow, by the end of the week, or is a done deal, the media goes into overdrive.
It's not happening. How are so many still so confused about this?
As I've said every working day, often multiple times a day, since late March, when US President Donald Trump stunningly told the press that there were “major points of agreement, I would say — almost all points of agreement" with the Iranians, there is no deal coming.
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Why? Well, I'll keep saying it: The US cannot give Tehran what it needs. And the Islamic Republic cannot give Trump what he needs. Anything resembling an agreement, based on what the sides need to get out of it politically, has been made impossible.
That's for any number of reasons: The history between the two governments, domestic political considerations, ego, theology, economics...you name it. There is no win-win available. And while Trump doesn't believe in taking a loss in order to live to fight another day, the Iranian regime sees living to fight another day as the primary goal.
They aren't playing the same game, and Trump was late in understanding it. By the time he figured it out, his options were limited, and none were all that good.
The Iranians are not begging for a deal, and as much as Trump has been able to will things into existence, this particular claim won't make the list. For his own good, he should stop repeating it, as it only makes his failure to reach an agreement, let alone one favorable to Washington, look even worse.
The most likely scenario going forward is the scenario that's been repeated for months: These latest talks will result in nothing, Trump will lash out, threaten destruction, some interested party will talk him out of doing something he doesn't want to do anyway, and he'll give peace another chance.
There will only be two things that will change that: The passing of midterms, which will to some extent free up Trump politically, or a preemptive pressure blitz from within his own party that will force Trump to create an off-ramp that the Iranians are refusing to provide him.
But a deal? It's not happening.