It's still an October 6 election - analysis

For the last 48 hours, Israel's election campaign has been dominated by an argument over who did what on the morning of October 7. As with so much in Israeli politics, the fight presents itself as one over October 7. At a deeper level, it's actually about October 6.

October 6, of course, in a metaphorical sense, as a stand-in for the months before the massacres, when Israel's politics were dominated by a social-cultural fight between political camps over universities, the media, the judicial system, and the civil service. The right argued that, as a rising majority, it should have the power to change institutions where a privileged left-wing elite still held sway decades after it lost public support.

On the left, protesters claimed that a majoritarian sweep would bring corruption, erode good governance, and eat away at civil and human rights.

That fight hit its crescendo in the spring and summer of 2023, with riling weekly protests and stormy arguments at meetups on Friday mornings and around Shabbat dinner tables on Friday nights. On October 7, it was said, all was pushed aside. The country needed to unite

A war that would take in seven fronts would not tolerate sharp division.

Except that the division never went away. It just put on a disguise. So the camps argued about what kind of commission should investigate October 7, one appointed by or through politicians or one dominated by retired judges. On the surface, an argument about October 7. In reality, an argument about October 6.

And so, for two days, Israelis have digested the comments of both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara that political opponent Yair Golan had advance notice of the October 7 attacks while the military failed even to wake up the prime minister in the immediate run-up to 6:29 a.m.

The claim about Golan is widely seen as a conspiracy theory with no evidence supporting it. The claim about the military's relationship with Netanyahu is consistent with Netanyahu's long-running claim that the military has primary responsibility for October 7, and not he.

The facts are crucially important for Israel's historical record and for learning lessons for Israel's national security policy. But for Israel's politics—and for understanding the October 27 election—what's important is the nature of the argument.

For this, too, is October 6 in disguise. The true argument, the underlying one, is whether an entrenched left is again arrogantly sidelining (or worse) an elected prime minister. Or whether a power-hungry demagogic right is aiming to do away with democracy's safeguards and guardrails.

And so after all of the angst, all of the heartache, all of the tragedy, all of the anger, and all of the nerves of the past three years, we have an Israeli society in many ways both scarred and changed. We also have a politics where the fight between political camps is so deep, so long-running, and so resilient that, despite all, it just won't go away. And it is still with us, to dominate these elections, too.