Ofer Winter shakes up the right with pitch to post-October 7 Israel - analysis

Ofer Winter, a well-known former IDF brigadier general, has burst out as the overnight sensation in Israeli politics. Tuesday evening in Jerusalem, Winter took to the stage to launch his right-wing Amcha Israel Party. And, within minutes, became the talk on television newscasts and on the street.

The former soldier fuses both a persona many in Israel find compelling with what seems to be an intuitive understanding of what some Israelis want. As an IDF officer, Winter became known as a renegade who pushed the limits of norms of combat and injected religion into fighting in a way that often raised hackles.

On stage, Winter brought that personality with decisive hand movements and sharp intonation. Establishment right-wing leaders may equivocate, Winter said, but he would bring decisiveness. "Decisiveness that would both respond to Israeli anxieties and... bring the enemy to bear," he exclaimed.

That message, Winter argued, fits post-October 7 Israel. Regardless of result, a slice of the Israeli right was bound to be sour, to see the October 7 war as not having gone far enough, to feel the country's leadership held back. Winter's message plays to that sourness, especially given the military's inability to subdue Hamas fully.

The establishment political right wants to block new players, as the political and military leadership need a jolt. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's name went unsaid. But the reference was clear.

The messages from the stage in Jerusalem will not resonate with everyone. Winter presented positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that many will consider extreme:

No Palestinian stage will ever be established. The only solution in Gaza is "emigration." Israel must always place the safety of its soldiers above that of the other warring party's civilians, a position directly at odds with international humanitarian law.

But voters repelled by such positions are not Winter's target audience. His target is those Israelis either attracted to those views ideologically or radicalized toward them by the aftermath of October 7. Of course, in an election campaign, Winter's message need not face a reality in which Israel's military doctrine must take account of foreign relations, public diplomacy, law, and ethics.

Winter brings with him a roster of potential Knesset members that has also won initial rave reviews. Yusuf Haddad, the well-known Israeli Arab influencer with right-wing views, will be second on the Amcha Israel list. Also on the list is Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, an immigrant from Gibraltar with deep ties in the English-speaking world, who is a longtime social activist and a former deputy Jerusalem mayor.

The Amcha party will have to sustain their initial success. The Israeli electoral system has a 3.25% electoral threshold. Get 3.2499999% of the vote, and find yourself outside the next Knesset. At minimum, Amcha Israel will need to stay above that number.

Winter, of course, may have greater ambitions. As such, he will need to compete within the political right not only with Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich but, even more so, with Netanyahu, who is reportedly unnerved by Winter's rise.

But, for all his evident talent, Winter risks being outsmarted by more experienced politicians—including the most successful politician in Israel's history. Netanyahu, for example, could well respond by pivoting from post-October 7 issues to the preexisting October 6 cultural clash that has long mobilized his base.

Winter excelled in his first test. Now, his far-right positions will be challenged, his inexperience plucked. This as Benjamin Netanyahu wrestles with how to manage this new rival from within the political right.