The Middle East has no limbo - Hamas and Hezbollah exploit the space between war and peace

Over the past hours in southern Lebanon and in recent days in Gaza, the IDF has intensified its strikes against two terrorist organizations, even as diplomatic initiatives continue, some aligned with Israel’s interests and others increasingly imposed upon it.

Hamas, responsible for the October 7 massacre, and Hezbollah, Iran’s long arm, both terrorist groups committed to Israel’s destruction, have not fundamentally changed their ideology or strategic goals. But both now find themselves in a paradoxical position: under pressure, yet simultaneously being given an opportunity to exploit the diplomatic space, challenge Israel and undermine Washington’s broader efforts to reshape the Middle East.

In Lebanon, the IDF still holds the buffer zone in the south and is effectively operating under a forced ceasefire with Hezbollah. Israeli troops remain in largely static positions, a posture that can leave them exposed. The pilot program for the Lebanese army to begin dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is moving slowly and remains limited in scope, particularly after the failure of previous efforts to rely on Lebanese state forces to confront the organization and prevent another war with Israel.

In Gaza, IDF forces remain along the yellow line, watching Hamas continue hostile activity beyond it, including tightening its grip on the civilian population through arrests, interrogations and torture. This is taking place under the framework of an agreement involving the Board of Peace and the mediators — Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Israel is not a signatory to the agreement, yet Jerusalem is under pressure from the Board of Peace to cooperate with its implementation.

There is no such thing as a vacuum in the Middle East. When terrorist organizations are given breathing room under diplomatic arrangements, they use it. Hezbollah can exploit the restrictions on Israel’s freedom of action to test the IDF in southern Lebanon. Hamas can continue rebuilding its influence and operational capabilities beneath the surface in Gaza, while simultaneously testing Israel’s relationship with President Trump’s administration and the demand that Jerusalem maintain the ceasefire.

And caught in the middle are the IDF’s commanders and soldiers. Their mission is to defeat enemy, but they are being asked to operate in hostile territory while facing significant constraints on their freedom of action. Unable to advance, without a good reason to withdraw.

The uncomfortable question is whether this is sustainable.

Under the current conditions, it is difficult to see a clear endgame in either arena, and there is a real possibility that this uneasy state between war and peace could persist for months, or even years.