Trump has three options in dealing with Iran, but only one is a smart tactic to save him from loss – analysis
And much like in chess, creating a stalemate can be a smart tactic to save you from a loss. Even for someone like Trump, the stalemate is the only wise play right now.
US President Donald Trump has only three realistic broad options when it comes to dealing with Iran, and only one of them is palatable.
Option one is to declare victory and move on. It’s definitely the easiest strategically, but Trump’s credibility when it comes to deterrence would take a hit he knows he wouldn’t be able to recover from. He also understands the intense ridicule that would come with it.
Option two is intensive military action to deliver a “final blow” to Iran, as some are calling for. The theory behind it is that the war will be one of attrition, and one in which Iran will be able to lay down the terms, if things continue on the path they’ve been going. But Trump understands the domino effect this will have on the region, including, and especially, on Gulf allies, almost all of whom have no appetite for more missiles and drones flying into their territory.
Option three is the one I believe Trump can accept, based on political, diplomatic and economic factors. It’s to, with some changes, accept the status quo, keeping alive the façade that negotiations will lead to something positive, while using sanctions more heavily, and possibly strengthening the idea of an international coalition to secure actual or effective control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Or, as Trump said on Sunday, “low-keying it.”
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Trump told Axios, just one week removed from threatening a massive military operation absent the conclusion of a deal with the Islamic Republic to reopen Hormuz, that "We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money."
Axios said that Trump stressed that Iran "is in very bad shape" economically, with the US naval blockade of Hormuz worsening Tehran’s economy, while the price of oil has returned to more reasonable levels due to a smooth flow of traffic out of the Strait.
A deal was supposedly going to be announced last week, laying out terms between Iran and Oman for administering Hormuz, but that has faded away. Meanwhile, on Saturday, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced inflammatory new terms for reopening the strait, ones that the United States would never accept.
Axios reported that US officials feel that if Iran is not actively at war, internal tensions created by a reckoning about the actual state of the country will play to Washington’s advantage.
"It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said.
And much like in chess, creating a stalemate can be a smart tactic to save you from a loss. Even for someone like Trump, who sees the world only in terms of winners and losers, the stalemate is the only wise play right now.