Analysis: How U.S. midterms are shaping up to affect Israel

With control of the United States House of Representatives and Senate still in the air, repercussions of Tuesday’s midterm elections are coming into focus. 

Republicans currently have a much clearer path than Democrats in taking hold of the House, albeit with a narrow majority. Presuming this holds, Israel is likely to benefit. Republicans would take over leadership of House committees, including those with purview over foreign affairs and appropriations. 

Threats emanating from the more progressive wing of the Democratic caucus to restrict aid to Israel or impose weightier oversight of the Jewish state’s activities would likely be neutered. This is especially consequential in light of the controversial roles that hard-right elements of the incoming Israeli governing coalition are likely to play – which are almost certain to set up clashes with Congressional Democrats. 

Steadier hand

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ sweeping win in his re-election campaign, along with his lifting of the Republican ticket statewide – the only red wave in the country – already is having a monumental impact on the shaping of the 2024 presidential election. 

DeSantis’ performance, coupled with poor overall showings by candidates backed by former U.S. president Donald Trump, positions DeSantis as a bona fide challenger to Trump’s leadership of the party. 

While Trump’s control of the party base should not be discounted, DeSantis’ ability to turn a purple state deep red and attract a diverse coalition of voters while doing so as a so-called culture warrior, coupled with the personal, political, and legal baggage Trump has saddled himself with, is already providing DeSantis with inroads alongside critical donors and party operatives. 

While 2024 is an eternity away, it is notable that DeSantis has been a strong, unswayable supporter of Israel since his time in Congress. 

While Trump rightfully points out his pro-Israel credentials – including the shifting of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and leadership in brokering the Abraham Accords – Trump has at times been publicly critical of Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu, and of select Israeli policies. 

While expressing gratitude for Trump’s contributions, incoming Israeli leadership may privately prefer a steadier hand in DeSantis. 

Pro-Israel Congress

The election has thus far proved a mixed bag for a largely pro-Israel Congress. 

Democrat Elaine Luria lost her re-election bid in Virginia. A strong defender of Israel who holds key committee posts, Luria’s defeat, even with the strong backing of pro-Israel organizations and political action committees, is a blow that will be felt in the party. 

New Jersey’s Tom Malinowski, another vigorous Israel proponent in the Democratic party, also fell in his re-election campaign. 

Additionally, Pittsburgh-area progressive Democrat Summer Lee fought through approximately $1 million of pro-Israel opposition in the primary and general election to capture a House seat. AIPAC’s political action committee was among those who challenged Lee for her critical stances on Israel. She and other vocal Israel critics, including Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Andre Carson all prevailed. 

However, pro-Israel PACs reported successful outcomes for the overwhelming majority of their preferred candidates. 

Jewish representatives

Among American Jews, the most notable and perhaps consequential victory came at the gubernatorial level, with Attorney General Josh Shapiro prevailing convincingly over Christian nationalist Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. 

While the Keystone State has featured Jewish governors before, Shapiro is the first – perhaps in the country – who has made his Jewish faith a key tenet of his campaign.

Shapiro’s family was featured in a campaign ad as they sat at the Shabbat dinner table, and he often brought up his Judaism on the campaign trail in much the same way as Christian candidates do. It is rare for an American Jewish candidate to place their faith and practices front and center outside of their dealings with the Jewish community in the way Shapiro did, and could serve as a blueprint for future candidates. 

The race was also notable for the Mastriano campaign’s anti-Semitic innuendo and use of Messianic Jews to counter charges of anti-Semitism.  

Colorado’s Jewish governor, Jared Polis, won re-election in a sweeping fashion and pulled the down-ballot ticket up with him much in the same fashion as DeSantis. Attorney General Phil Weiser and Secretary of State Jena Griswold, both Jewish, won their re-election bids, as did U.S. Senator Michael Bennet, who often cites his mother’s Holocaust experiences.   

Businessman George Santos claimed victory in his second crack at a House seat on New York’s Long Island. 

Santos is a Jew with Brazilian and Angolan roots whose grandparents fled persecution in Ukraine and later Belgium. He was one of three critical Republican House flips in previously deep-blue New York, a turn of events that could ultimately be pointed to as the reason for Republicans gaining control of Congress. 

Anger among Orthodox Jews about rising anti-Semitism and the Democratic administration’s stance on the tightening of regulations of education at yeshivas led to a visible shifting of support to Republicans. While New York Governor Kathleen Hochul survived a challenge from Jewish U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, key House flips came in Orthodox-Jewish heavy areas on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, reemphasizing the Orthodox Jewish community’s role as a force in New York politics.