Former CIA Chief: 'US strikes on Iran will not lead to regime change'

As tensions rise between Washington and Tehran, former CIA director David Petraeus cautioned that any potential U.S. military strikes against Iran would fall short of triggering regime change. 

Speaking on an American radio program on Sunday, Petraeus argued that even large-scale military action would have only limited impact on Iran’s ruling establishment.

“Let’s be clear: this will not lead to regime change,” he said, while noting that he could nonetheless support targeted strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities or weakening its security forces. 

According to Petraeus, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, remains a rigid ideologue who is unlikely to compromise, particularly on the nuclear issue.

These remarks come amid ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials over Tehran’s nuclear program. President Donald Trump has publicly left the door open to diplomacy, while at the same time reinforcing the U.S. military presence in the Middle East should talks collapse.

On Friday, Trump urged Iran to “negotiate a better deal.” He also cited a figure of 32,000 protesters allegedly killed in Iran—a number put forward by opposition groups but significantly higher than other estimates. 

Emphasizing a distinction between Iran’s leadership and its population, Trump expressed sympathy for the Iranian people, describing their situation as “very sad” and claiming they are “living in hell.”

Petraeus further underscored what he sees as the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions to U.S. allies in the region, particularly Israel. He also pointed to Tehran’s support for armed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq. In his assessment, continued Iranian inflexibility could prompt a “very substantial” display of American military power.