Report: Trump receives US intelligence that shows Iran weakest since 1979 revolution
U.S. military officials say the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, recently deployed to the Middle East, could launch a strike within a day or two if ordered by the White House
US President Donald Trump said the situation with Iran is “rapidly evolving,” as new intelligence assessments suggest Tehran’s leadership is facing its weakest moment since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, even as the United States sharply increases its military presence in the region.
In an interview with Axios, Trump said he had ordered a “great armada” to deploy near Iran’s coast to project strength, while insisting that the door to diplomacy remains open.
According to Trump, Iranian officials have made repeated attempts in recent days to contact the White House. A senior U.S. official later confirmed that Washington is open to negotiations, but only if Tehran accepts conditions that have already been clearly communicated.
Multiple people familiar with U.S. intelligence briefings said recent reports delivered to the president indicate that Iran’s grip on power has significantly weakened, with unrest and internal pressure reaching areas once considered firm strongholds of the regime.
The assessments describe the current moment as the most fragile period for Iran’s leadership since the overthrow of the shah more than four decades ago.
The escalating standoff follows Trump’s consideration earlier this month of military strikes against Iranian regime targets, after a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests reportedly left thousands dead. While Trump ultimately delayed any decision on direct action, he ordered a major reinforcement of U.S. forces in the Middle East. Officials say no final determination has been made, and further high-level discussions are expected in the coming days.
Among the reinforcements is the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which has entered the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. The deployment also includes F-15 and F-35 fighter jets, aerial refueling aircraft, and additional air defense systems, significantly enhancing U.S. strike and deterrence capabilities.
Military officials said that if the White House were to authorize a strike on Iran, the carrier group could, in theory, carry out operations within one to two days.
Inside the administration, debate remains intense over how to proceed. Hardliners are pushing to enforce Trump’s declared “red lines,” while others argue that military action could be counterproductive and that the regime’s current vulnerability offers a rare opening for a diplomatic breakthrough.
U.S. officials say any potential agreement would require Iran to remove all enriched uranium, impose strict limits on long-range missile capabilities, end support for regional proxy forces, and halt uranium enrichment altogether. Tehran has signaled a willingness to negotiate but has so far rejected those terms.
Trump also referenced last year’s brief conflict, arguing that allowing Israel to strike first prevented a much larger Iranian attack. At the time, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessed that Iran could quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, though constructing an operational nuclear weapon would have taken several months.
While Iranian nuclear facilities have sustained heavy damage from recent U.S. and Israeli strikes, the whereabouts and status of Iran’s uranium stockpile remain uncertain. As the crisis continues, U.S. forces remain on high alert, prepared to act swiftly should the president issue an order.