Trump holds back on Netanyahu election endorsement as his influence in Israel wanes - analysis
With Trump’s standing among Israelis falling and Netanyahu increasingly willing to challenge him, a presidential endorsement may no longer carry the electoral weight it once did
US President Donald Trump’s withholding, at least thus far, of an endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being looked at through the wrong spectrum.
Trump has been clear, even through his public disagreements with Netanyahu, that he feels the latter’s stewardship of Israel, especially during the wars with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, led to Israel’s survival.
Trump pushed hard for a pardon to be issued during Netanyahu’s criminal trial. And, given every opportunity to smear Netanyahu, Trump still consistently insists the relationship between the two is strong.
Trump doesn’t endorse because he believes in someone personally. He either endorses someone who has no chance of falling, or he does so when he truly believes his stamp of approval is going to move the needle in a tight race.
The former does not apply here. Netanyahu, the ultimate political survivor, is indeed in trouble electorally, down but certainly not out.
So, the question becomes, can Trump sway Israeli voters?
Perhaps at one point he could have. Netanyahu certainly believed so, at one time making his relationship with Trump a centerpiece of his campaign. But now? It’s much less clear.
Trump’s own stock with Israelis has dropped precipitously in recent months, with one poll showing Israeli confidence that Trump is prioritizing Israel’s security plummeting to a 28% mark.
A poll taken by an Israeli journalist known to be close to Netanyahu himself showed Trump’s standing among Israelis plummeted following the now-abandoned memorandum of understanding reached with Iran this summer.
So, who would an endorsement sway at this point? There is a fraction of the Israeli electorate that is right wing, not all-in for Bibi and undecided about whether to remain with Likud or vote for another right-wing party. But, it’s relatively small. And even among those, based on the polling numbers, a dwindling percentage would see a Trump endorsement as a substantive positive for Netanyahu.
The biggest tell of all is Netanyahu’s own positioning, which more and more shows him standing up to Trump, including on an IDF withdrawal in Gaza, counter to the Board of Peace’s wishes. If Netanyahu himself feels the best electoral route is to publicly and selectively oppose Trump, that tells you much of what you need to know.
So, with success far from guaranteed, a likely inability to move the needle in any real way, and perhaps with Trump thinking he may be better off with someone else at the wheel in Jerusalem, an endorsement seems to serve no one’s interests at the moment.