WSJ: US intelligence warns Putin could test NATO with limited attack in coming years
The reassessment comes as the US faces shortages of some of the weapons it could need in a future conflict with Russia or China
US intelligence agencies now believe Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s defenses with a limited attack on an alliance member within the next few years, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing US officials.
The new assessments envision scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale ground incursion, marking a shift from Washington’s previous view that Putin would avoid directly provoking NATO while Russia remained at war with Ukraine.
The reassessment comes as the US faces shortages of some of the weapons it could need in a future conflict with Russia or China. American stockpiles have been depleted by years of military aid to Ukraine and by the recent US war with Iran, according to the Journal. Officials identified long-range Precision Strike Missiles and Army Tactical Missile Systems, as well as shorter-range Stinger air-defense missiles, among the weapons whose inventories are under strain.
US officials told the Journal that the intelligence picture began changing earlier this year as Putin came under mounting pressure to produce a victory in Ukraine. Russian forces have continued making only limited battlefield gains while suffering heavy casualties, while Ukrainian drone attacks have increasingly targeted Russia’s military and oil infrastructure.
US and European officials have also pointed to what they see as Russian efforts to probe NATO’s response, including cruise missiles landing in Poland and drones entering Romanian airspace. Intelligence officials are now examining whether Moscow could escalate such actions against European allies, amid concern that Putin could become more willing to take risks if he feels increasingly cornered in Ukraine.