Hungary votes in pivotal election that could end Orban's 16-year term

Hungarians are voting in a closely watched parliamentary election on Sunday that could end Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s 16-year hold on power and reshape the country’s position within Europe and beyond. The vote is being monitored closely by the EU, Russia, and the US, given Orban’s long-standing ties with Moscow and his alignment with US President Donald Trump. 

Israeli officials are also closely monitoring the election outcome amid concerns that a possible defeat for Orban could also significantly alter Budapest’s stance within the EU on Israel-related issues. Orban’s government has repeatedly used its veto power in EU institutions to block measures seen as critical of Israel, including sanctions initiatives that require unanimity among member states.

According to officials familiar with the matter, a victory by Magyar could shift Hungary closer to EU consensus positions in order to secure access to Brussels funding, potentially ending its role as a consistent blocker of anti-Israel initiatives. However, the same officials stressed that Hungary would not necessarily become hostile to Israel, and its position would more likely align with mainstream EU states such as Germany and Italy rather than adopt more critical stances seen in countries like Spain or Ireland.

Polls in recent weeks have shown Orban’s ruling Fidesz party trailing the opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, by between 7 and 9 percentage points. Voting for the 199-seat parliament began at 6 am local time and is scheduled to end at 7 pm. The outcome remains uncertain due to a high number of undecided voters and recent changes to the electoral map.

Orban, in power since 2010, has framed the election as a choice between “war and peace.” Speaking to supporters, he said, “If we know ourselves well, if we know our country well, and if we know our own people well, then I must say Hungarians will vote for safety on Sunday.” His campaign has emphasized national security and opposition to involvement in the war in Ukraine.

Magyar, a former Orban ally, has focused his campaign on allegations of corruption and declining living standards. In a final campaign push, he said, “This will be a referendum... about our country's place and our country's future.” His message has resonated particularly among younger voters amid concerns over economic stagnation and rising costs.

The election carries broader geopolitical implications. A defeat for Orban could affect Russia’s influence within the EU and potentially unblock a 90-billion-euro EU loan package for Ukraine. Analysts say the result could range from a Tisza-led government to another Fidesz majority, with the final outcome likely to hinge on turnout and late-deciding voters.