How Sinwar's secret message before October 7 was misread by Israeli intelligence - report
New details reveal why intelligence officials interpreted it as related to the Elizabeth Tsurkov kidnapping case rather than as a warning of the coming attack
Several weeks before October 7, a secret message from Yahya Sinwar reached Israel stating "an earthquake is expected in the prisons due to the prisoner issue." The message was short, unusual, and the defense and intelligence establishment debated its meaning at the time.
The leading assessment was that Sinwar and Hamas intended to insert themselves into the case of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli researcher kidnapped and held in Iraq.
At the same time Sinwar's message arrived, Israeli intelligence detected a new development in the Tsurkov case: a senior Iranian official had approached Hamas and suggested the organization "accept responsibility for the negotiations for the release of Elizabeth Tsurkov."
Sources who participated in the discussion told Channel 12, "Sinwar's message fit the new intelligence picture like a glove." In the special situation assessment convened at the Shin Bet's request, no source offered an alternative interpretation of the message.
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In retrospect, the message had a completely different meaning: it was Sinwar's way of extracting additional benefits from Israel while postponing the attack he had planned. But in real time, the intelligence picture built around the Tsurkov case appeared to the system to fully explain the message.
A senior defense official also addressed a Haaretz report claiming UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had conveyed a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "If a subsequent message had indeed reached the prime minister himself from Mohammed bin Zayed, it could have been the one that would have sent us to other deepening steps."
Netanyahu denies such a conversation took place.