The real story behind Israel's Gaza plan 'Rejection' — and where it goes from here - analysis

Since US President Trump took office, we've rarely seen Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejecting any of his plans or ideas - but that happened last Sunday, when Netanyahu declared that Israel "rejects the Gaza roadmap." Or did it?

Netanyahu explicitly said the "IDF will not make any withdrawal until Hamas disarms" - something that seemingly contradicts what is written in Articles 8 and 13 of the Gaza Roadmap, published by the Board of Peace on July 30. Yet since last weekend, Israel has refrained from conducting targeted strikes in Gaza, and various reports in Israeli media describe much stricter rules of engagement for anything perceived as a “threat.” So why did Netanyahu say Israel rejects the plan?

Israel has major problems with certain clauses of the Roadmap, especially regarding how the verification mechanism works. The International Verification Committee (IVC) leans on Turkey and Qatar - two mediators Israel has long distrusted over their ties to Hamas - to help oversee compliance. And under Article 8, the weapons handed over aren't destroyed - they're "decommissioned and stored" until rendered unusable, meaning heavy weapons, production sites, and even personal weapons stay inside Gaza rather than being removed. These issues make it nearly impossible for the Israeli government to accept and therefore fully commit to the plan.

Furthermore, there is no doubt that the Israeli government - and the Israeli public - do not believe Hamas will actually hand over its weapons, or that if it does, it won't find a way to regain control of them, or rebuild its arsenal, down the line. In fact, according to a newly released poll, this skepticism isn't just widespread - it's close to a national consensus.

The Jewish People Policy Institute's (JPPI) August Israeli Society Index found that 58% of all Israelis believe the disarmament agreement will not be fulfilled, and that the situation in Gaza will essentially remain as it is today. Among Jewish Israelis specifically, the pessimism is even sharper - 63% don't believe the agreement will hold. Only 3% of all Israelis believe in the full scenario the roadmap envisions - Hamas disarming completely and Israel withdrawing from the entire Strip - and among Jewish respondents, that figure is effectively zero.

Seen through that lens, Netanyahu's rejection is simple electoral math. With elections approaching, and nearly two-thirds of Jewish Israelis not believing the disarmament deal will ever happen, there is no electoral benefit in being the prime minister who publicly endorsed a plan most of the country already expects to fail. Rejecting the roadmap costs him nothing with a skeptical electorate - regardless of what Israel actually does on the ground.

President Trump, for his part, seems, for now, to be indulging Netanyahu's position. His reaction to the rejection was notably thin. Asked in the Oval Office whether he had any response to Netanyahu's statement, he said: "I have a response. I put it out today on Truth - a good response." No such post ever appeared. He added, as he often does, that his relationship with Netanyahu is "very good."

That muted, almost evasive response is itself becoming the story. According to Politico, diplomats and officials familiar with US Middle East policy say Netanyahu's rejection has exposed a deeper problem: Washington either lacks the leverage to move the Gaza plan forward, or isn't willing to use it. An Arab diplomat quoted in the report warned the rejection carries "significant implications for long-term regional stability and Israel's security," and said Trump is the only one capable of pressuring Netanyahu to reconsider.

Certain Arab and regional countries likely want to see Trump apply harsher pressure on Netanyahu to advance their own interests in Gaza - but so far, the two leaders appear aligned, which is slowing the process down - but doesn’t stop it.

This Israeli military restraint in Gaza is an earlier commitment made by Israel back in October when the ceasefire started. Article 2 of the 15-point plan states: "Israel shall fully complete, without delay, all remaining commitments under the Sharm el-Sheikh Protocol, particularly the cessation of military operations as detailed in the annex". Israel simply never implemented it, on the pretext that Hamas had not met its own disarmament obligations under the Gaza Peace Plan and UNSCR 2803.

By doing this, Israel has effectively given the Board of Peace a "green light" to move forward with the step-by-step process in Gaza. From the Israeli government’s perspective, they are now fulfilling a commitment they made last year after Hamas agreed to the process of disarmament - yet Israel doesn’t formally commit to the new 15-point plan.

The next phase is meant to include the entry of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and the International Stabilization Force (ISF), which the Israeli cabinet approved last month.

Meanwhile, the Board of Peace's director-general for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, announced that the International Verification Committee (IVC) has been established and has started working in Gaza. This is the same body that will verify the "decommissioning and storing" of Hamas's heavy weapons, military production sites, weapons depots, and tunnels, according to Article 8.

So is Netanyahu really rejecting "Trump's peace plan"? The longer answer is that Israel is, in practice, already behaving as if bound by the roadmap - very limited targeted strikes, restraint at the Yellow Line, a cabinet that approved NCAG and ISF entry weeks ago - while rejecting its public statement in order not to commit to it. The rejection shields Israel from having to endorse a plan it doesn't believe will work, and also shields Netanyahu politically, less than three months before the elections.