Gadi Eisenkot widens the gap against Benjamin Netanyahu on Polymarket

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party continues to make gains on Polymarket ahead of the Israeli elections. The prediction market platform now estimates its chances of winning the most seats in the Knesset at around 62%, compared to 39% for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

This is the highest level recorded by the former chief of staff in the available data. The trend has sharply reversed in just a few weeks: a month earlier, Likud was given a 59% chance of finishing first, compared to 41% for Yashar.

The nearly 20-point lead that Benjamin Netanyahu's party had at the time thus turned into a more than 20-point gap in favor of Gadi Eisenkot.

More than $300,000 has already been wagered on this market. In accordance with Polymarket’s rules, its outcome will depend on the party or list that wins the largest number of seats in the vote, and not on the identity of the candidate who ultimately succeeds in forming a governing coalition.

These figures, however, do not constitute opinion polls. They correspond to the price of contracts negotiated by the platform’s users and can change rapidly depending on transactions.

Coming out on top in the election does not guarantee access to the position of Prime Minister either. That will depend on the distribution of seats among the various blocs and on each candidate’s ability to assemble a majority in the Knesset.