Likud rethinks election strategy as Ofer Winter rises in polls

Likud is reviewing its election strategy as polls suggest Ofer Winter’s party could win six seats, potentially changing the balance of the bloc that supports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Officials close to the campaign say some in Netanyahu’s circle worry Winter could align with Avigdor Liberman after the election. Other Likud officials reject that assessment, noting that pollsters still place Winter’s party in the Netanyahu bloc.

For now, Likud is trying to persuade Winter to withdraw from the race and is not pursuing a vote-sharing agreement with his party. That position could change before the October 16 deadline for submitting such agreements to the Central Election Commission.

Some party officials are concerned that Winter could remain in the race but fail to cross the electoral threshold, costing the right-wing bloc potential seats.

Likud is also focusing on turnout in its traditional strongholds. Party officials say they have identified polling stations where Likud won nearly half the votes at the previous election, despite turnout of about 35%. The campaign estimates that bringing more of those supporters to the polls could give Likud two or three additional seats.

Campaign teams plan to monitor turnout near polling stations and contact supporters who have not voted during the day, with particular attention to older voters and those who have difficulty traveling.

Likud officials describe their outlook as “cautiously optimistic,” believing a stronger turnout operation could offset some of Winter’s gains.