Netanyahu emerges as the clear winner of Likud primary, without even being on the ballot- analysis

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not a candidate in Monday's Likud primary, but he was definitely the winner.

For years, no significant challenger has dared challenge Netanyahu in a formal Likud primary. But there have been plenty of Likud ministers and Knesset members who saw themselves as his eventual replacement.

Anyone who hoped to position himself as Netanyahu's natural successor in Monday's primary had their hopes dashed by the results that came out Tuesday morning.

If Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana had finished first in the primary, well ahead of any other candidate, he would have been seen as the prime minister's heir apparent. If Economy Minister and former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat had finished strong despite Netanyahu's attempt to assassinate him politically, he would have become a force to be reckoned with in the Likud. Right now he's in the borderline 24th slot on the list, and Netanyahu could still use political maneuvers to demote him to an unrealistic slot.

And even Israel Katz, who has held the top three portfolios - Defense, Finance and Foreign Affairs - backed out of proving his worth in the race and accepted a reserved slot, despite his bombastic campaign ads depicting him as the first ever right-wing defense minister with a knack for blowing up bad guys.

The candidate who received the most votes, Energy and Infrastructure Eli Cohen, does not have the gravitas to run for prime minister in the post-Netanyahu era and poses no threat to him now. He is a conveniently obedient number two for Netanyahu, who has seen multiple former deputies leave in frustration and start rival parties that no longer exist.

Netanyahu has been compared to an evergreen tree - stately and timeless - but unwilling and unable to sustain anything growing underneath him. While there is a general consensus he won't run again, if no one can form a government after the October 27 race, he will remain prime minister and preside over more primaries in his party.

The prime minister has a history of former generals undermining him, from Yitzhak Mordechai to Moshe Ya'alon to Yoav Galant. Now he has no one with military credentials in his way, leaving him as the only Mr Security in the party.

There is no security figure left in the Likud, after former Shin Bet Security Agency chief Avi Dichter did not win a realistic slot. The highest ranked IDF officer on the list is retired brigadier-general Miri Regev, who people forget was the IDF spokeswoman in charge of explaining Israel's Gaza withdrawal to the world.

As usual, there are too few women in realistic slots, only three in Regev, Tali Gotiv, and Gila Gamliel. Netanyahu would be wise to remedy that with the reserved slots at his disposal.

Gotliv will still be there, bashing the legal establishment, as will Ohana, and Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who was second on the Likud list last time and remained in its top 10. The fight for judicial reform is bound to resurface in the next Knesset, after Likud members decided not to demote Levin too far.

One more winner to single out is Amichai Chikli, who is relatively new to Likud and had a reserved slot last time but nevertheless received more votes than party stalwarts like David Amsalem and David Bitan. Unlike his fellow defector from Naftali Bennett's list in the last Knesset, Idit Silman, he won a respected slot on the list and will likely remain a minister if Netanyahu forms the next government.

Chikli's portfolio - Diaspora Affairs and Fighting Antisemitism - was not considered particularly attractive in past Likud primaries. Perhaps Likud members realize now that after October 7, such issues have never been more important.

This could be a message to more parties to put those issues at the forefront ahead of the October 27 election.