INSS: Israeli annexation likely to be stopped in the face of 'dramatic' repercussions
The INSS ran a war games simulator that predicted mass Palestinian violence and diplomatic consequences
A leading Israeli think tank ran an exercise this week simulating possible scenarios that would arise from Israel annexing parts of the West Bank but concluded the move is highly unlikely given the potential damage the decision would inflict on its security and diplomatic standing.
“Almost immediately, a series of escalating events began in the Israeli-Palestinian sphere and beyond," the prestigious Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) warned in its latest findings.
As part of a quickly deteriorating Middle Eastern situation, the INSS warned that Jerusalem would likely be confronted with a wave of Palestinian violence and the freezing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declaring independence over the West Bank.
"During the game, the increased loss of control over these events spurred the various relevant actors to accede to a plan by the Quartet [UN, US, EU and Russia] regarding the suspension of both the annexation and establishment of the Palestinian state and a return to the negotiating table with President Trump’s plan one of the terms of reference for those negotiations, along with the Arab Peace Initiative.”
The Arab Peace initiative is a 2002 Saudi-sponsored plan that offers Israel's full diplomatic normalization and trade with the Arab world in exchange for a Palestinian state in accordance with the UN and international law.
The INSS also lamented that the current Israeli government eschewing long-term strategic thinking in favor of "short-term" considerations, and that annexation could prompt “dramatic steps that change the rules of the game.”
“The war game found a way out of the trap, but it is questionable whether in reality, this exit will be accessible or practical,” the think tank concluded.