Israeli military doubts near-term regime change in Iran - report
Intelligence assessments suggest the air campaign has not weakened the Iranian leadership's grip to the degree needed for toppling the regime
The Israeli military is increasingly skeptical that regime change in Iran can be achieved in the near term, raising questions about one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stated war objectives as the conflict continues, according to a Financial Times report.
Quoting two people familiar with internal discussions, the report states that the prevailing view within Israeli military intelligence is that current operations have not created the conditions necessary to topple the Islamic Republic. The assessment reflects evolving thinking within the Israel Defense Forces’ Intelligence Directorate, known as Aman.
One source familiar with the briefings said the ongoing aerial campaign “had yet to measurably erode the Iranian regime’s hold on power” since the United States and Israel launched their military operation on February 28. Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity, describing internal deliberations rather than an official position. The IDF declined to comment.
Officials cited in the report indicated that expectations for rapid political change in Tehran are diminishing. “The military told the government, ‘This isn’t going to be bang and we’re done,’” one person familiar with Israeli government discussions said. “Regime change was always going to be very, very, very, very hard.”
The assessment comes as Israel and the United States continue a sustained campaign targeting Iranian military infrastructure. While strikes have focused on degrading capabilities, recent reporting indicates a shift away from expectations that internal unrest alone could bring down the regime.
According to the sources, any effort to destabilize the Iranian leadership would likely require coordination beyond air operations. They said such an outcome would depend in part on parallel activities by the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, aimed at encouraging internal dissent and supporting armed groups.
The Mossad has been tasked with efforts to create conditions for unrest, including supporting Kurdish militias in northern Iran and attempting to foster protests, one person familiar with the strategy said. The goal, according to the report, would be to generate internal pressure that could weaken the regime’s control, creating a clear path toward leadership change in Tehran.