50/50 chance: Despite Iran’s rejection, Israel still sees path to ceasefire ahead of Trump deadline

Senior Israeli officials told i24NEWS a temporary ceasefire with Iran remains a real possibility ahead of a looming deadline set by US President Trump, despite Tehran’s initial rejection of the proposal.

During high-level security discussions in Jerusalem on Sunday, officials assessed the chances of a deal being reached at roughly 50:50, according to sources familiar with the talks. While a ceasefire is not Israel’s preferred outcome at this stage, there is broad agreement that any deal put forward by Washington would be backed.

“There are no real alternatives,” one participant said to i24NEWS, adding that Israel is unlikely to oppose Trump given the close coordination between the two countries throughout the conflict.

Israeli officials are now preparing for multiple scenarios, including the possibility that a ceasefire agreement could be finalized within hours, potentially before or shortly after the deadline expires.

Trump’s central objective is to secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route whose disruption has been a major flashpoint. Such a move would allow Washington to present a diplomatic breakthrough even without a broader resolution to the conflict.

Despite Iran’s negative response earlier on Monday, officials stressed that negotiations are ongoing and could still shift. “It’s not over until it’s over,” a source said.

At the same time, Israel has finalized military plans for a potential escalation if talks fail. Officials described a clear strategic fork: either a US-brokered arrangement that restores maritime access through Hormuz, or a significant expansion of strikes on Iranian targets.