Israel–Turkey collision course: could Syria ignite the next regional crisis?

Informal security arrangements governing Israeli and Turkish military activity in Syria have effectively broken down following an Israeli strike on a northern airbase, raising concerns that the country could become the center of an escalating regional rivalry.

Speaking on i24NEWS’ “On the Record,” Syria analyst Charles Lister said recent Israeli airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase challenged understandings reportedly reached through talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. Those arrangements included separate areas of operation and a direct hotline intended to prevent an accidental confrontation.

Israel said Turkey was preparing to deploy air-defense systems at Abu al-Duhur, about 40 miles from the Turkish border.

Ankara denied the allegation. The strike was followed by sharp exchanges between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan, with both leaders portraying the other country’s actions as a threat to regional security.

“The understandings themselves … essentially did collapse a few weeks ago,” said Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute. He added, however, that the United States and other parties appear eager to restore them.

Lister said the earlier negotiations followed the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government, when Israel and Turkey sought to protect their competing interests amid the resulting uncertainty. Turkey, a longtime supporter of Syrian opposition groups, moved to expand its influence, while Israel sought to preserve its freedom of military action.

According to Lister, the American understanding was that the dividing line ran through central Syria, near the T4 airbase and other installations. The strike on Abu al-Duhur, far north of that area, therefore surprised US officials and created the impression that Israel was attempting to move the boundary closer to Turkey.

Without a renewed agreement, Lister warned, the possibility of escalation would increase, even though neither Israel nor Turkey appears to want a direct conflict.

“There has to be diplomatic engagement to avoid any kind of escalation,” he said.

Lister rejected claims that Turkey’s conduct is primarily driven by ambitions to revive an Ottoman-style sphere of control. He characterized Ankara instead as a self-interested regional power taking advantage of its geography and longstanding relationships with Syrian armed groups.

Turkey has struggled to compete economically with wealthier Gulf states in Syria’s reconstruction, he said, but has found an opening in the defense sector through its ties to factions affiliated with the Syrian National Army.

That does not mean Turkey wants to control Syria or use the country as a platform for attacks against Israel, Lister argued. Rather, Ankara is seeking influence while helping Damascus build its capacity to confront threats including the Islamic State group and external military pressure.

Syria’s transitional authorities, meanwhile, remain in a precarious position after years of civil war and decades of authoritarian rule. Lister said the government lacks the resources needed to meet even basic obligations, including public-sector salaries, and is consequently willing to accept assistance from a wide range of international partners.

Damascus has attempted to balance competing regional relationships while signaling interest in a security agreement with Israel, he said. However, Lister accused Netanyahu’s government of resisting an accord despite months of US-mediated negotiations.

Continued Israeli military action could push Damascus closer to Ankara, he warned, despite Syrian leaders’ reluctance to be viewed as dependent on Turkey.

“Israel’s policy and behavior towards this new Syria is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Lister said, arguing that sustained incursions and strikes risk creating the security threat Israel says it is trying to prevent.

The interview also addressed the integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into state institutions. Lister described the process as a major development, saying military and security integration had been completed after the SDF recognized that it could no longer maintain control over a large autonomous territory.

The agreement had produced significant gains for Syrian Kurds, including access to citizenship and official recognition of the Kurdish language.

Conditions remain more volatile in the Druze-majority province of Sweida, however. Lister blamed Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri’s refusal to negotiate with Damascus for obstructing a settlement and contributing to growing internal unrest.

Ultimately, he says Syria should be viewed as an opportunity for regional cooperation rather than an arena for hostile competition. Restoring a mechanism separating Israeli and Turkish operations would be an important first step.

“There shouldn’t be a reason why those understandings shouldn’t be reestablished,” he said.