Analysis: Likud primaries – Shaped in Netanyahu’s image, but with an unfinished touch

Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu has good reason to be satisfied with the composition of the recently elected Likud party slate for Israel’s November 1 legislative elections. 

But he also has reason to be concerned.

Reasons for satisfaction

With the primaries, Netanyahu proved that he remains the all-powerful leader of Israel's largest political party. 

Neither his trial in the Jerusalem District Court, nor a year of crossing the desert since the formation of the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid coalition government, have affected his leadership, his hold on party authorities, or his influence over the approximately 80,000 members who participated in the primaries on Wednesday. 

The electoral list was shaped in Netanyahu’s image, according to his own wishes and to a simple and cutting principle: those who, during this year of opposition, have remained loyal to him – Yariv Levin, Yoav Galant, Elie Cohen, among others – found themselves propelled to the top of the list. 

On the other hand, those who wanted to succeed him, like Yuli Edelstein, or even those who simply considered doing so, like Israel Katz, were sanctioned and painfully demoted. 

As for those who had their days – like Tsahi Hanebi who continues to pay for his political desertion to the liberal Kadima party in 2005 – or those who have moved closer to "enemy lines,” like Orly Levy Abecassis, they were just wiped off the list.

Other reasons for Netanyahu's satisfaction

Netanyahu’s new close guard – namely the first 12 lawmakers on the Likud list – conveys the messages that are important to him today: loyalty, the desire to carry out a vast reform of the Israeli legal system, and the yearning to preserve the Jewish identity of Israel. 

By calling on members to vote and getting a high participation rate of 58 percent, Netanyahu succeeded in neutralizing the impact of the deals made between “dubious” candidates and blocs of lawmakers, silencing the voices of those who were called the “new Likudniks” who wanted to be an internal opposition to his rule.

During the primaries, the members also gave carte blanche to Netanyahu so that he could name five candidates of his own choice.

Nearly 30 years after winning the Likud presidency, Netanyahu remains, more than ever, the center-right party’s absolute master.

His political adversaries say his success is like that of a “Bolshevik” – a member of the Russian Social Democratic Workers’ Party that seized control of Russia’s government in 1917. 

But the fact is that his victory was won on the ground, with tens of thousands of adherents, which is simply called the will of the people, or “primary democracy,” something that other Israeli leaders have refused to submit to.

With that being said, a wise eye would notice the several shortcomings in Likud’s electoral list.

Embarrassing oversights

At the publication of the first “estimate” of the results of the Likud primaries on Wednesday evening, certain political observers spoke of a change of generation and new figures who would make the party list more attractive. 

On Thursday, though, it was obvious that such a revolution would not transpire and that the list was less attractive than Lapid would have liked. It turns out that the first 18 who made it on the list are unconditional loyalists to Netanyahu and are all outgoing deputies or known faces.

The only new faces are those of the former editor of Israel Hayom, Boaz Bismut, and the lawyer Tali Gotlieb.

After them came Dan Illouz, a young, dynamic French-speaking Canadien native and former municipal councilor of Jerusalem.

In total, there were seven newcomers voted into the first 35 slots of the list – new blood, certainly, but not enough to talk of a revolution or a change of generation in Likud.

Other problems are female and Sephardic representation. In the first 20 seats of the list, there are only three women. In the entire list of the party, which is a bastion of Israel’s Sephardic population, there was one Sephardic Jew who made it – Dudi Amsalem, in fifth place.

Risk of rebellion in case of failure

Beyond these considerations, Netanyahu has a major reason to be concerned after the formation of his party. 

If on the morning of November 2, he discovers that he has a majority coalition of 61 seats in parliament, Likud will claim victory and will line up behind the leader who brought them back to power. 

On the other hand, if the Likud-Orthodox-Religious-Zionist bloc remains below the threshold of 61 seats, then the discontented, embittered, frustrated those who were downgraded during the primaries could organize and cause a wind of rebellion to blow against Netanyahu within the party itself. 

Netanyahu will then have to be wary. But we are not there, yet.