Analysis: A day after Herzog’s speech, the search for 'Plan C'

The bigger the anticipation, the bigger the disappointment. Such is the feeling in many parts of Israeli society today after the speech to the nation on Wednesday evening by President Isaac Herzog. 

For weeks, Herzog had put himself front and center, nobly putting at risk his carefully guarded status as national arbiter. Instead of staying above the fray, Herzog, maybe unexpectedly, took up the challenge of putting together a concrete compromise proposal on the proposed judicial overhaul that has divided the nation.

The proverbial stakes are high, as economic expert after expert warn of collapse should the proposed bills pass as written. 

The potential social impact is visible on the streets: capital is leaving the country, investors may well be staying away, and many in Israel’s creative class are threatening to bolt. Israel has a mobile knowledge-based economy and delicate social contract which disrupted can lead to free fall.

And so the country cast its eyes just after 8:30 p.m. local time Wednesday night to hear whether the president could break the impasse.

The response from the government and coalition was swift: at times polite and at times less so, the answer was a swift rejection. 

The compromise had staked out a middle ground between the government’s positions and the status quo. Changing the composition of the panel that picks judges, but not giving the coalition a majority. Raising the threshold for the Supreme Court to strike down a law, but not enough for the coalition’s satisfaction. The compromise would also do away with the controversial parliamentary override clause the coalition has said it wants.

Herzog’s proposal does not seem to have the 61 votes it needs to get through the Knesset, certainly not within this coalition, but analysts are ignoring a key point: the coalition’s current proposals might not have 61 votes, either.

The warning signs are there. For all the talk of a solid majority in parliament, the coalition has only four votes to spare. One potential “no” vote is senior Likud lawmaker Yuli Edelstein, who has already signaled his intentions. Some, most recently Likud MK David Bitan, have stressed the need to talk, while others might well be lying low entirely until a moment of truth.

So Plan A, the current proposals, might not only court catastrophe but lack the votes. And Plan B, Herzog’s framework, looks set to lack the votes, too.

It appears Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will need a Plan C. He and others have talked about a unilateral softening of the bills, but no softening is simple, or even truly unilateral.

A coalition plan will not satisfy all opposition politicians, but, to be workable, it has to satisfy the high-tech sector, the banks, the Biden administration, and the military. Those sectors allow Israel to keep tech jobs at home, stops capital from leaving, manages its ties with the United States, and maintains the reservist pilots to bomb Syria and (if need be) Iran.

De facto, those are the negotiating partners here, and then there’s the negotiation within the coalition.

To keep the coalition together, a proposal must keep on board both a pragmatic wing that demands compromise and the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that insist on key pieces of the proposals on the table. Netanyahu will need to please both flanks, or decide to pay a huge political price and risk his government and even prime ministership.

Netanyahu, of course, will want both a workable compromise and also a government that stays intact. He’s often been dubbed a political magician, but here, he hasn’t yet pulled a rabbit from out of his hat. 

In the coming weeks, he’ll need to keep searching.