Signs of war? Iran hints at readiness for a confrontation with Israel

This coming Friday, April 14, Iran will celebrate Al-Quds Day. This day, held every year on the last Friday of Ramadan, is intended to express general opposition to Zionism and Israel's control over Jerusalem. 

The Al-Quds Day events usually include demonstrations and street rallies in Iran, other Arab and Muslim countries, and among Israeli Arabs. 

But will this year's demonstration bring other news with it? In the last few days, signs have accumulated that indicate the Iranian side's readiness for war. 

Just this past Saturday, Iran's military forces announced they were on the highest alert. The next day, the Revolutionary Guards Navy conducted unusual exercises in the Straits of Hormuz; according to the Iranian press, this is to show solidarity with the Palestinian people. The New York Times even reported that the Revolutionary Guards are prepared to attack any ship in the Persian Gulf that carries the Israeli flag or is Israeli-owned. 

On Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "The Islamic countries have primary responsibility on the Palestinian issue. The existence of the Zionist regime is a threat to the stability and security of the region. The Palestinian people are at the forefront of the fight against a regime that will spread terror to all the region's countries."

The spokesman added, "By insulting the holy places for Muslims, especially the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the Zionist regime has demonstrated that it will not spare any opportunity to continue its criminal activities against the Palestinian nation and the neighboring countries. Fortunately, we are witnessing the awakening of the Islamic nation. We are sure that on Quds Day, we will witness the riot of Muslim countries and all the free countries of the world in support of the oppressed Palestinian nation and the rights of the Palestinians." 

This announcement comes a few days after the publication of the conversation between Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi and Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, in which Raisi said, "Israel's crimes are a sign of the regime's weakness and proof of the bright and promising future of the resistance front." 

On the same day, Hezbollah's central council member, Nabil Kavek, announced that "Israel is experiencing its worst days since 1948 thanks to the equations of the resistance. It is on fire inside and outside." He also said that Hezbollah is at the forefront of aid to the Palestinians and the Palestinian resistance, and will continue to do so without hesitation. 

Sheikh Kamal Khatib, head of the northern faction of the Islamic movement in Israel, also tweeted this week quoting a verse from the Quran about the Battle of Badr against the infidels. Khatib explained that in the battle Muslims were the few against the many, the weak against the strong, yet the Muslims prevailed because Ramadan is a month of victories and full of confidence that salvation will come soon. 

The Taliban in Afghanistan has not been left out either. On Monday, the organization published a message of support for the Palestinians, stating that if the region's countries allow it, the organization will send some of its best fighters to fight on Israeli soil.

Many of these statements and their extremism can be attributed to the riots on the Temple Mount and the expression of solidarity with the Palestinian factions involved in the riots. 

And yet, in Beirut on Sunday Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah met with a Hamas delegation led by Ismail Haniyeh and his deputy Saleh al-Aaruri. According to the reports, the parties discussed "the important developments in the Palestinian arena, the events at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the resistance in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip." 

Nasrallah's statements also indicate an escalation, saying that "the Israelis are eating themselves from the inside, and they don't know where the recipe is coming from." Furthermore, he said the State of Israel would not get to celebrate its 80th Independence Day, in five years time. 

At the same time as the meeting in Beirut, Ismail Ka'ani, commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), arrived on the night of April 10 for unusual meetings in Syria, apparently with representatives of the Syrian army, representatives of Hezbollah, and possibly even representatives of Hamas. Such meetings are often held under extreme military tensions to prevent intelligence exposure of the meetings and their planning. 

In addition, the fourth division of the Syrian army, led by President Assad's brother, is bringing military reinforcements and weapons to the southern region of Syria, on the border with Israel. This can be linked to the activity of the Israeli Air Force in the area in recent weeks, but even here, the timing raises questions. 

In another attempt to mobilize the Arab world for its goals, in recent days the Iranian president spoke with his counterpart in Algeria and told him: "We emphasize the need to create a united front of the Islamic countries against the Zionist entity; the need is more urgent than ever for the cooperation of the Islamic countries and the formation of a united front against the conquering entity." 

The issue of the Iranian president's urgency is unquestionably troubling. The Algerian president replied that he hopes "we can free the Palestinian people from Zionist oppression." 

Iran has recently gained strength, especially in light of its security assistance to Russia and its strategic agreements with Russia and China, and even information that "leaked" from Iran indicating that it already has a certain amount of uranium enriched to a military level. That is, it is possible that Iran already has a full military nuclear capability (in low quantities). 

Iran's moves are coordinated with its strategic partners: China and Russia. 

From the Russian direction, in recent days, large-scale GPS jamming has been detected in the entire eastern Mediterranean Sea basin. The GPS jamming apparently comes from Russian warships or other vessels operated by Russia. However, such a volume of jamming has not been recorded in recent years. The reasons for GPS jamming are yet to be clarified. 

From another direction, China has recently begun to strengthen its military tightening vis-à-vis Taiwan. First, China recently announced that its coast guard and navy are allowed to conduct a security inspection and stop any vessel, military or civilian, that sails in the Taiwan Straits. This declaration, inconsistent with maritime freedom of navigation laws, effectively allows China to impose a naval blockade on Taiwan. 

On April 10, China began a large-scale combined military exercise lasting three days, in which hundreds of fighter jets simulated attacking targets in Taiwan using over 80 Chinese vessels, along with an aircraft carrier and missile batteries, which were also deployed in Taiwan's territorial waters. 

All of the Chinese moves divert the U.S. and NATO's attention away from the Mediterranean region. This will allow the Iranian Axis (Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, the Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen) forces to operate in the region with limited American involvement, which could help Israel during a campaign of this magnitude. 

It should be noted that in the last week, the U.S. announced that it had sent a submarine carrying nuclear missiles to the Mediterranean Sea to monitor Russia's movements. This is an unusual move on the part of the U.S. Does the U.S. have information about Iranian intentions? 

With the Chinese and Russian backing, possible nuclear armament, a formidable number of weapons, the fact that Europe and the U.S. are more concerned about what is happening in Ukraine and the South China Sea, along with the social crisis and the deep divide in Israel; all of this combined with the sanctity of Ramadan is apparently encouraging the Iranian Axis to be overly motivated.

They may realize the time is ripe to attack Israel when it is at its weakest. 

Suppose a combined attack by the Iranian Axis does indeed begin. It will probably start with cyber-attacks (in recent days, cyber-attacks have been carried out on Israeli targets), along with barrages of missiles, rockets, and drones from all directions (Yemen, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon). 

The goal is to create chaos, harm the Israeli home front, and waste Israel's inventory of interceptors ("Iron Dome" and "David's Sling" aerial defense systems). The next stage would already include a ground attack along with the umbrella of air defense systems of the Iranian Axis forces, which the IDF will be required to confront above the ground and below it (against attack tunnels), from the air and the sea. 

Finally, I hope this assessment will remain only as written words, a misinterpretation of the signs accumulated over these days, and a pessimistic view of the state of things in the eastern Mediterranean region. 

Dr. Eyal Pinko served for 30 years in Israeli security services. After his retirement, Dr. Pinko has been a journalist, a lecturer and the president of the International Institute for Migration and Security Research.