Despite intense US–Israel strikes, Iran’s regime shows no signs of falling - report
American intelligence says Iran’s leadership remains intact and is not at immediate risk of collapse despite nearly two weeks of US-Israeli strikes, according to sources cited by Reuters
US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact and is not at immediate risk of collapse, even after nearly two weeks of sustained military strikes by the United States and Israel, according to three sources familiar with the findings.
The assessments, compiled from a range of intelligence reports, suggest that Iran’s ruling system continues to function and maintain control over the country’s population.
One source described the intelligence picture as a “multitude” of reports offering a consistent conclusion that the Iranian regime is “not in danger” of collapsing and still “retains control of the Iranian public.”
The analysis comes amid ongoing regional tensions and a continuing military campaign targeting Iranian military infrastructure and leadership networks. Despite significant damage caused by the strikes, intelligence officials believe the core governing structure has remained cohesive.
According to reporting by the news agency Reuters, internal assessments emphasize that Iran’s religious and political leadership has remained unified, even after the elimination of the country’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, during the first day of the military operation.
The resilience of the regime could complicate efforts to reach a diplomatic or military conclusion to the conflict.
Officials in Israel have reportedly acknowledged in closed discussions that the ongoing conflict does not guarantee the collapse of Iran’s religious leadership. A senior Israeli official told Reuters that while the campaign has weakened key elements of Iran’s military and political apparatus, there is no certainty it will lead to regime change.
At the same time, intelligence sources caution that the situation remains fluid. Internal dynamics within Iran could still shift as the conflict continues, potentially altering the stability of the leadership structure or triggering political unrest.
Meanwhile, diplomatic activity is also emerging around the crisis. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, recently spoke with Iran’s president, becoming the first Western leader to hold direct talks with Tehran since the conflict began.