Iran still has roughly 60% of missile arsenal, 40% of drones - report
Despite war damage, US intelligence estimates Iran still holds significant launch capability and stockpiles, including 40 percent of its drones, which could be used to threaten Hormuz shipping
Iran still has enough missiles, launchers, and drones to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz despite major damage to its weapons industry during the US and Israeli war, according to US intelligence assessments reported by the New York Times.
The report said that while Iran’s weapons manufacturing capacity was significantly degraded, multiple officials estimate that Tehran still holds roughly 40 percent of its prewar drone arsenal. Officials said these drones remain a deterrent, noting they can be intercepted by warships but pose a serious risk to commercial shipping vessels.
According to the assessment, Iran also still has a substantial missile and launcher stockpile. At the time of the ceasefire, officials said Iran retained about half of its missile launchers. In the days that followed, it reportedly recovered around 100 additional systems that had been concealed in caves and bunkers, raising its operational launcher capacity to roughly 60 percent of prewar levels.
The report also said Iran is actively recovering missiles buried in damaged depots and underground facilities following airstrikes. Some US estimates suggest that once recovery operations are complete, Iran could regain up to 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal, although officials stressed that exact figures remain uncertain.
Officials cited in the report said intelligence assessments are inherently imprecise but provide a broad indication of Iran’s remaining military capacity. They added that despite differing estimates, there is general agreement that Iran retains enough weaponry to pose a potential threat to maritime traffic.
The assessment comes amid continued concern in Washington and allied capitals over security in strategic waterways as Iran continues saying the international strait remains forcefully closed, with officials warning that Iran’s remaining capabilities could still be used to disrupt shipping routes if tensions escalate. The ceasefire agreement brokered between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22 with a follow-up plan yet known to be set in place.