Israeli intelligence: Iran’s regime at most fragile point since 1999

Israeli intelligence officials assess that Iran’s ruling Ayatollah regime is at its most fragile point in more than two decades, as nationwide protests continue to escalate. 

The scale of the demonstrations and the government’s response have prompted deep concern in Jerusalem. 

A near-total internet shutdown is being interpreted as a troubling signal of severe events unfolding on the streets, including widespread killings that remain largely undocumented. Despite protests erupting in roughly 100 cities across Iran, very little video footage has emerged, further underscoring the regime’s clampdown.

Israeli officials warn that the situation could pose a real threat to the stability of Tehran’s leadership if demonstrations continue to grow. However, sources stress that the outcome is highly uncertain. A potential collapse of the regime would not necessarily lead to a democratic government, and intermediate scenarios—such as the replacement of leaders with regents or puppet figures—are also possible.

“The situation is far more complex than it appears,” said a source familiar with security discussions to i24NEWS. “No one truly knows how events will unfold, and we are monitoring every development with extreme caution to determine the best response.”

For now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach is described internally as “monitoring, supporting, hoping.” Israel is keeping a careful distance, allowing Washington to take the lead in applying international pressure on Tehran, while ensuring that the protest movement cannot be linked to Jerusalem in any public way.

Israel’s security establishment continues to follow developments closely, preparing for multiple scenarios in an environment where uncertainty and volatility remain exceptionally high.