The Houthis signal the possibility of war with military mobilization and escalating messages

The Houthis have resumed escalating their military rhetoric in Yemen, in a move that reflects the possibility of shifting from a state of "neither war nor peace" to a large-scale confrontation. This comes amid regional developments related to understandings between Iran and the United States.

In this context, the group's so-called "General Mobilization Forces" announced full combat readiness to implement the directives issued by Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. This includes sending fighters to the frontlines and strengthening military preparations under the slogan "Confronting the forces of aggression, expelling the occupiers, and ending the blockade."

The group stated that its mobilization forces comprise hundreds of thousands of personnel and hundreds of brigades that have been trained and armed over the past several years. It also emphasized the existence of full coordination between them and the Houthi-affiliated armed forces at all military levels.

The Houthi escalation is linked to the Iranian-American MoU

Observers believe that the latest Houthi threat cannot be separated from the recent understandings between Tehran and Washington, which have given Iran's allies in the region a greater room of maneuver.

The Houthi mobilization statement came after a hardline speech by Abdul Malik al-Houthi marking the Islamic New York, in which he spoke about “restoring full sovereignty” and ending what he described as “blockade and dependency.”

The group also praised what it called "Iranian victories against America and Israel," affirming its commitment to what is known as the "unity of fronts," in reference to the growing connection between the Houthis and the regional Iranian axis.

An attempt to reshuffle the cards

The simultaneous media escalation and military mobilization, according to political assessments, reflects a Houthi attempt to reshape the internal and regional situation amid the stagnation surrounding Yemen's peace process.

The parliament in Sanaa, which is under the group's control, was quick to adopt the rhetoric, describing it as a "strategic vision" for the coming stage.

This escalation raises concerns that the areas under Houthi control may shift into a state of open alert, which could lead to the collapse of the fragile understandings that have existed since the 2022 truce.

October 7 is a cover for mobilization and recruitment

In recent months, the Houthis have been keen to link military mobilization efforts to the Palestinian cause by using the slogan "Al-Aqsa Flood" as the title for military and recruitment programs.

Yemeni estimates suggest that the group is employing religious rhetoric and the Palestinian issue to bolster its domestic project and justify the continued militarization of society.

It has been suggested that the group has succeeded during the years of war in building an extensive ideological mobilization network within tribes and society, making any future round of fighting potentially broader and more complex.

Pressure messages to Saudi Arabia and within Yemen

The Houthis' rhetoric carries dual messages aimed at both external and domestic audiences.

At the regional level, the group continues to hold Saudi Arabia responsible for the suspension of salary payments in areas under its control, demanding that it pay the salaries from Yemeni oil and gas revenues and lift restrictions on the ports and Sanaa airport.

Internally, the Houthi discourse includes an implicit threat to voices criticizing living conditions, by linking demands for salaries or protests against economic conditions to what the group describes as “treason and collaboration with the enemy.”

This comes amid growing public anger due to the continued deterioration of services, the suspension of salaries, and the rise in poverty and unemployment rates.

Fears of the truce collapsing

The Houthi escalation places the Yemeni government and the international community before complex challenges, amid warnings that militarizing society and raising the level of mobilization could lead to the complete collapse of the de-escalation process.

The Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council has repeatedly warned that the Houthis are exploiting the truce to rebuild their military capabilities and impose new realities by force.

Meanwhile, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg continues his efforts to contain tensions and prevent the collapse of the political process, amid international concerns about renewed fighting and threats to navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab.

Analysts: The Houthis are using the war to extract gains

It's believed that Houthi escalation is directly linked to the course of military and political negotiations and aims to strengthen the group's bargaining power, as it tries to demonstrate its ability to mobilize and organize. However, this card is no longer as effective as it used to be, especially after the redeployment and repositioning of government forces on several fronts.

As an ideological movement, the Houthis have historically relied more on mobilization and military buildup than on political agreements or institution-building. They point out that the rhetoric of "general mobilization" reflects the essence of the group's political doctrine, which considers armed force a primary source of legitimacy and influence.

Possible future scenarios

Military analysts believe that the likelihood of a return to military confrontations has increased, especially in light of what they described as the "Iranian green light" following understandings with the United States.

Observers argue that the Houthis have used the years of the truce to build training camps, expand their military arsenal, and prepare for future conflicts, whether inside Yemen or as part of the so-called "Axis of Resistance." They predict that the group would focus any potential military escalation on the fronts of Marib and Taiz due to their economic and strategic significance, in addition to intensifying operations in the Red Sea and targeting the Saudi interior using missiles and drones.

The Houthis may adopt a strategy of expanding the battlefield by activating most frontlines simultaneously, taking advantage of the manpower provided by recent mobilization campaigns.