Turkey's presence in Syria is a fact, and Israel needs to adapt - analysis
Turkey's presence in Syria is a fact. Diplomatically and militarily. Israel needs to keep a vigilant eye on Turkey to better understand its true intentions
For now, Turkey appears to be downplaying last week's Israeli airstrikes at Abu al-Duhur military airbase in northern Syria, about 70km from the Turkish border.
The strikes occurred while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is on vacation, with his office issuing a short statement condemning the strikes and saying that Turkey "will continue to support Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to stand firmly against any initiatives that threaten peace and stability in our region."
A Turkish source tells me that Erdoğan is going to make an appearance on Tuesday, after his vacation, during which he will "set a tone, using tough rhetoric." But Israel has already grown accustomed to Erdogan's "tough rhetoric."
What Turkey didn't do is respond militarily. The Turkish source tells me that Ankara views last week's strikes as an election stunt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And he's not alone.
US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, said in an interview over the weekend that "The Israelis were baiting the Turks, in a very aggressive pre-election concept." For this reason, Ankara decided to contain last week's strike.
If you ask Turkey, they had every right to respond. According to understandings reached between Israel and Turkey over Syria, Turkey is permitted to operate and deploy forces north of T4 airbase in Palmyra. Abu al-Duhur airbase is north of T4.
But there is another explanation for Turkey's patience. Turkey is taking advantage of the changes taking place in the region. First and foremost, the weakening of the Iranian axis has left behind a large vacuum. And in the Middle East, vacuums don't tend to live very long.
Erdoğan is apparently seeking to fill the void by taking steps to limit Israel's freedom of operation in the region. The decision to form the 'Mecca alliance' between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan can be seen as another step toward that goal.
While not taking active steps against Israel, Erdoğan is placing his pieces on the board in a way that will hinder Israel's aerial superiority and limit its power in the region. But that does not mean it's time to sound the alarms in Jerusalem.
In a regional rivalry like the one forming between Israel and Turkey, one must pay close attention to the difference between signals and actions. Rivalry does not automatically mean hostility or even enmity, despite Erdoğan's escalatory and inflammatory rhetoric.
A sign of said difference can be seen in the de-confliction mechanism reportedly established between Israel and Syria during Sunday's meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli Mossad chief Roman Gofman. According to reports, the mechanism will operate under American-Jordanian supervision.
After October 7, Israeli leaders have said that Israel will no longer judge its enemies based on their intentions, but on their actions. That model should be applied vis-à-vis Turkey. While Erdoğan's rhetoric is irresponsible and often antisemitic, Ankara has not come close to taking active military steps against Israel. In Israel, Erdoğan is accused of using such rhetoric for internal political purposes. Sound familiar?
Turkey's presence in Syria is a fact. Diplomatically and militarily. Israel needs to keep a vigilant eye on Turkey to better understand its true intentions. While that shouldn't dictate Israel's strategy, in the absence of actual hostilities, intentions should receive more weight than words. That applies to both Israel and Turkey.