2022: Tensions shift from the Gaza border to the West Bank, Israel

The Gaza border out, the West Bank and Israel in – this was the main characteristic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 2022.

In late March and early April, four terror attacks within Israel in the space of just two weeks killed 14 Israelis and brought back to the streets feelings and images of fear that Israelis thought were long gone. 

The first two attacks – in the southern city of Be’er Sheva and the northern city of Hadera – were carried out by Arab-Israelis with ties to the Islamic State. That the perpetrators were Israeli citizens was a worrying development, though it should be said the vast majority of the Arab-Israeli community distances itself from terrorism.

The next two attacks showed where exactly Israel should mostly operate. Shootings in Tel Aviv and to its east, Bnei Brak, were carried out by Palestinians from the Jenin region in the northern West Bank. They had slipped through the security barrier, armed, and ready to kill.

Following these events, Israel embarked on a military operation dubbed “Break the Wave.” It was not a traditional operation, but rather featured continuous incursions into the West Bank to arrest individuals involved in terrorism, raids that often times led to gun battles with local militants. The counterterrorism campaign initially focused on Jenin – a no-man's land with no real governance, a perfect place for militant cells to sprout. 

Another terror attack within Israel in early May, this time in the ultra-Orthodox city of El'ad, showed that the operation should extend to the entire West Bank, not just Jenin.

Operation “Break the Wave” was successful in lowering the level of violence in Israel, which has decreased dramatically since the spring. But on the other side of what Israelis call “the green line,” which separates Israel and the West Bank, it's a whole different story. Stone-throwing, car-ramming attempts, and stabbing attacks have always been a daily event in the West Bank, but 2022 was the year in which frequent shooting attempts joined them.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of these attempts took place in and around Nablus and Jenin, where the Palestinian Authority (PA) is practically unrepresented. Those doing the shootings came from the ranks of the militant organizations, but this year also introduced a new phenomenon: Local militants, criminals, and youth – in various places, they combined together to form an armed militia not connected to any established organization. The Lions’ Den operating in the area of Nablus was the most notorious of them all, carrying out various shooting attacks, some of them ending with the death of Israeli soldiers and civilians.

After a string of attacks in the summer and early fall, Israel embarked on various missions targeting the leadership of the Lions’ Den. The surviving leaders understood the message and handed themselves in to the PA, and levels of violence have since decreased.

Coincidently – or perhaps not – one of the most violent years in the West Bank and east Jerusalem in the past decade was one of the most peaceful years along the Gaza border. The Strip’s extremist governing faction Hamas was influential when it came to inciting violence in the West Bank, but was just as instrumental in keeping its own front quiet due to the improved economic situation and a large number of entry permits for workers into Israel. 

The only flare-up, in early August, involved the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) acting on its own. Hamas chose to sit on the sidelines as Israel took down the entire PIJ leadership in an operation lasting 55 hours.

What should we expect for the year ahead? In the West Bank, more of the same. 

The PA with an aging president will not do more than it’s already doing, meaning the nightly Israeli incursions will continue and so will the Palestinian attacks. Israel will be happy to see more of the same on the Gaza border as well. As long as Hamas shares that interest, this will be the case, but the constant drills it is holding show that sometime, sooner or later, the peaceful scenario there will come to an end. 

Will it happen in 2023? The answers lie with Hamas head Ihiya Sinwar.