IRGC sends commanders to the Houthis, supplies intelligence for confrontation with Saudi Arabia
Iranian leaders shifted to escalation after signing the Memorandum of Understanding with the US in June, using the ceasefire to prepare allied militias for a wider war, the Wall Street Journal reports
Iranian and Arab officials said Iran's hard-line leadership viewed the June memorandum as a likely attempt by the US and Israel to ease pressure on the global economy and buy time before a bigger attack. Rather than relying on the talks, the Wall Street Journal reports that Tehran used the two months following the agreement to prepare for an extended conflict, giving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps greater control over the regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the Iran-Iraq war to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence, and ramping up missile and drone production.
While Iranian diplomats pursued a deal with Washington, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei simultaneously moved to prepare the security apparatus for an expanded confrontation that Tehran itself could initiate, officials familiar with the matter told the Journal. Intercepted communications and other intelligence indicate the IRGC sent commanders to areas controlled by Yemen's Houthis to plan a stepped-up confrontation with Saudi Arabia, in coordination with Iraqi militias also backed by Iran.
The IRGC reportedly supervised deployments of missiles, naval weapons and drone launchers overlooking the Red Sea, and provided the Houthis with intelligence, target lists including Saudi ports and energy facilities, and advice on evading Saudi retaliation. The Guard also sent advisers to Iraq and Lebanon to discuss plans for escalation if needed.
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The Houthis have declared the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closed to Saudi Arabia and struck Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, while Iran-backed militias in Iraq launched drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The IRGC has also threatened Gulf states with strikes on their energy facilities if the US hits similar sites in Iran, sending detailed target lists to Arab counterparts, according to the officials.
Khamenei has in recent weeks reorganized Iran's security establishment, appointing veteran commanders to key posts and consolidating Revolutionary Guard control over the regular army. New IRGC Commander in Chief Ahmad Vahidi was tasked with "powerful offensive operations against the enemy," according to his appointment decree
Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator, described the current stalemate as "the calm before the storm," adding that Iran retains a "generational project for blood vengeance" following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the war's opening strikes.