Yemen war escalates as Saudi-aligned forces and Houthis clash in deadly offensive

Over 300 people have been killed in renewed offensives in Yemen, as the Saudi-aligned government and Iran-aligned Houthis clashed across the entire frontline.

On Thursday, the Houthis launched an attack against government forces that claimed the lives of over 120 people as they sought to sever the connection between the port city of Mokha and Taiz in the highlands. The Houthis also began launching attacks against Saudi shipping and oil refineries in the region.

Within a day of the offensive, Yemen's Saudi-aligned government had launched multiple counter-attacks against Houthi positions along the coastline and in the northern deserts bordering Saudi Arabia. Government forces announced that they are aiming to capture the port city of Hodeidah, the last remaining port capable of resupplying Houthi forces in the Yemeni interior.

It's currently unclear what caused this escalation, with some claiming that Iran is seeking to open another front to pressure the United States while others say this was related to the attacks against Sana'a airport earlier this year, which constricted Houthi access to supplies, forcing them into an offensive to claim more ports.

Houthi control over Taiz would allow them greater control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait and give their ally Iran greater leverage in negotiations with the US. If Taiz falls, the Houthis would have a clear path to Aden, a major port, which could support larger resupplies from Iran.

The initial Houthi offensive was largely repelled and they made few gains; meanwhile, government counterattacks bore fruit on Monday as they made brakethroughs on the coast and in the northern deserts.

The government-aligned governor of Hodeidah told Saudi state-owned media that he was confident that government forces would succeed in capturing Hodeidah. One official reported that they had pushed 30 km (18.6 miles) inland. Although the push seems to have stalled due to intense fighting in the Taiz area, with the UN's International Organization for Migration reporting that over 20,000 people have been displaced, while others are trapped due to rapid changes along the frontline.

Much of the fighting along the coast is being led by the Yemeni National Resistance (YNR). The YNR was initially composed of members of Yemen's elite Republican Guard and were eventually brought under the UAE's wing. The UAE provided training and supplies to the unit, leading it to become one of the most effective fighting units in the conflict. However, they have been criticized for being the personal army of Tareq Saleh, the nephew of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted in 2012 and killed in fighting in 2017.

While the southern front has stalled, the northern front has been significantly more elastic. Alleged Saudi airstrikes on Houthi positions near the border opened the way for government forces to launch rapid attacks along the empty frontier.

Some government-aligned sources are reporting a collapse of the Houthi frontline, with Houthi forces withdrawing from indefensible positions in the desert. Yemeni state TV reported that following the capture of the Al-Libnat military camp in the desert, "dozens" of Houthis surrendered to government forces. Saudi-owned media also reported that tribes in the northern al-Jawf area were mobilizing in support of government forces and videos from the region appear to show large numbers of irregular fighters joining government forces.

Despite the claims from government forces, the government advance appears to have stalled while fighting remains intense. Government forces captured key locations in the south and the north, providing better positions to launch further campaigns. However, they have not captured any major population centers nor do they seem to have caused a serious collapse in Houthi morale.

In response to alleged Saudi airstrikes, the Houthis have targeted Saudi Aramco's refinery in Jizan, the Financial Times reported. The Jizan refinery produces 400,000 barrels of oil per day which makes it one of Saudi Arabia's largest refineries.