A 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting people: Space telescope to crash to Earth today
NASA estimates that fragments of the telescope are expected to crash within about 2,200 kilometers north or south of the equator, encompassing a number of countries
NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift space telescope is expected to crash to Earth today (Wednesday), nearly 22 years after it was launched to study the most powerful explosions in the universe.
While the 1,360-kilogram (3,000 lbs) telescope is expected to largely burn up as it passes through the thick inner layer of the atmosphere, NASA expects parts of it to crash to the ground. “The risk of harm to anyone on Earth is unlikely, approximately 1 in 2,000,” NASA said.
The space agency expects that parts of the telescope could crash somewhere between 20.6 degrees south and 20.6 degrees north latitude, or approximately 2,285 kilometers (1400 miles) north or south of the equator. This vast area includes Central and South America, central Africa, southern India, Southeast Asia, and northern Australia, as well as large parts of the world’s oceans.
It is still unclear exactly what time the telescope will crash to Earth. Different models predicted a window of several hours. An estimate by the nonprofit Aerospace Corporation put the time at approximately 11:20 a.m. to 1:20 p.m. Israel time. A more recent forecast by the U.S. Space Force predicted a window of 1:40 p.m. to 3:40 p.m. Israel time.
While NASA had long known that the telescope would likely have to crash into Earth, the agency had hoped that a rescue mission launched in July could service it and extend its stay in space by another decade. The telescope ultimately reached an altitude of just 275 kilometers above Earth and stopped collecting scientific data.