Mossad plan for Iran uprising yet to materialize weeks into war - report

As the United States and Israel prepared for war with Iran, Mossad chief David Barnea presented a plan to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed at sparking internal unrest that could destabilize the Iranian government, officials familiar with the discussions told The New York Times.

According to the report, Barnea told Netanyahu that within days of the conflict’s outbreak, Israeli intelligence could help galvanize Iran’s opposition, potentially triggering riots and broader rebellion. He also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January, and Netanyahu ultimately adopted the plan.

Three weeks into the war, however, such an uprising has not materialized. US and Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that while Iran’s leadership has been weakened by sustained strikes, it remains firmly in control. Officials say widespread fear of Iran’s military and security forces has limited prospects for internal unrest or coordinated action by opposition groups.

Behind closed doors, Netanyahu has expressed frustration over the lack of progress. According to officials, he raised concerns in a security meeting shortly after the war began, warning that President Donald Trump could decide to end the conflict before the strategy yielded results.

In the lead-up to the war, Israeli officials cited Mossad’s assessment to argue that regime collapse was a realistic objective. However, many US officials and analysts within the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate were skeptical. American military leaders advised Trump that large-scale protests were unlikely while Iran was under active bombardment, and intelligence estimates assessed the chances of a mass uprising as low.

Part of the broader strategy included potential support for Iranian Kurdish militias based in northern Iraq. Israeli strikes in western Iran during the early stages of the war targeted military and police infrastructure, with an Israeli military spokesman stating, “We’ve been operating very heavily in western Iran to degrade the Iranian regime’s capabilities and to open up the way to Tehran and to create freedom of operations.”

However, US officials have since cooled on the idea of relying on Kurdish forces, creating friction with Israeli counterparts. Turkey has also warned against such involvement, with its foreign minister conveying opposition in talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, citing Ankara’s longstanding concerns over Kurdish militant activity.