IRGC consolidates decision-making power while new supreme leader takes back seat
While Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains in the shadows, three senior leaders in Tehran are making the real decisions about Iranian foreign and domestic policy.
It looks like Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are now the dominant decision-making force in Tehran. In a Reuters report, three people familiar with internal deliberations said that the real decision-making power has moved from the supreme Leader over to wartime leaders, centered on the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the IRGC. The shift started after the death of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the elevation of his son, Mojtaba, who owes appointment to the Guards, who sidelined pragmatists and backed him instead.
Despite taking power nearly two months ago, Mojtaba has not yet appeared in public, is reported severely wounded, and still only communicates through IRGC aides or limited audio links due to security constraints. While he does hold a role in the process, he is largely relegated to endorsing and legitimizing outcomes made through institutional consensus, rather than holding any real authority.
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So far, three names have appeared the being the real power players. On the diplomatic side, Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi has served as the public face of the talks. Then there is parliament speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, who is a former Guards commander, Tehran mayor, and presidential candidate. And on the ground the key figure has been IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi.
The IRGC’s growing dominance signals a more aggressive foreign policy and the reorganization is already affecting nuclear negotiations with Washington. Iran submitted a new proposal to Washington on Monday envisioning staged talks, with the nuclear issue set aside until the war ends and disputes over Gulf shipping are resolved. Washington has insisted the nuclear issue be addressed from the outset.
So far, Iran has shown no signs of fracture in the face of sustained military and economic pressure from the US and Israel. A senior Pakistani government official briefed on talks said, "The Iranians are painfully slow in their response. There is apparently no one decision-making command structure. At times, it takes them 2 to 3 days to respond." According to sources familiar with internal discussions, the IRGC is looking to avoid a return to full-scale war, preserve leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and emerge from the conflict in a stronger political, economic and military position.