Russia threatens systematic strikes on Kyiv as European capitals fear Putin may expand war beyond Ukraine
Russia has escalated threats against the Baltic states to test NATO cohesion, as Western intelligence warns Putin may be running out of options
European capitals are increasingly alarmed that President Vladimir Putin, stuck on the Ukrainian battlefield and lashing out with massive strikes on Kyiv, may try to reshuffle the cards by expanding the conflict to Europe. In recent weeks, Russia has made increasingly bellicose statements against the Baltic states, threatening to bomb decision-making centers in Latvia after accusing the country of hosting Ukrainian drone operators. Air raid alarms were sounded in Lithuania last week, forcing the government into a bunker, after suspected Russian drones approached its airspace from Belarus.
Russia's Defense Ministry also published the addresses of companies allegedly working on drone production with Ukraine in eight European nations, warning of "unpredictable consequences" and "sharp escalation" if military assistance to Kyiv continues.
Several European national security officials have warned that Russia could try to test the cohesion of NATO by targeting one of the Baltic nations, Swedish and Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or alliance territory in the Arctic. This comes as US President Trump continues to threaten withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and to reduce US military presence in Europe.
Sweden's Defense Minister Pål Jonson said the security environment in Europe has "deteriorated during the last 24 months" with Russia showing "a greater inclination to take greater operational risks." Senior European officials fear Russia may see an opening in the next 12 months as the oil shock from the Iran war creates additional political turmoil in Europe. Among the turmoil is the rise of far-right parties seeking a return to buying Russian oil and gas while ending aid to Ukraine.
NATO is planning to reinforce the defense of Latvia and Estonia, with Germany and the Netherlands agreeing to have their joint corps based in Münster take responsibility for defending both countries in the event of war with Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, visiting Lithuania, warned, "When the Baltic states are tested, all of Europe is tested."
This comes as Russia's dominance on the frontlines with Ukraine rapidly diminishes, losing an estimated 35,000 soldiers a month, more than what the Kremlin can recruit. Continuing the war at its current pace will soon become untenable without forced mobilization. In a Reuters exclusive report, a Senior Ukrainian commander is already predicting a "turning point" calling the change in leverage imminent, within the next six to nine months.
Meanwhile, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a stark warning to foreign citizens, including diplomatic personnel, to leave Kyiv immediately, as it retaliates for what it described as a Ukrainian drone attack on student dormitories in Starobilsk in the Luhansk region that killed 21 people. Earlier this week, Russia struck Kyiv with around 600 drones and 90 missiles, killing at least four people and injuring approximately 100. Russia has even deployed its Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile against Bila Tserkva, south of Kyiv, marking the third wartime use of the weapon.
Russian FM Sergey Lavrov called US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to relay a personal warning from Putin about planned systematic strikes on Kyiv. Rubio confirmed he passed the message to Trump, adding there are currently no active negotiations with Ukraine, though Washington is prepared to "play a constructive and helpful role if the opportunity arises."