Ethiopia's civil war threatens wider conflict as Somaliland offers Addis Ababa a route to the sea

Ethiopia's renewed civil war is threatening to spill across its borders, as rising tensions with neighboring Eritrea fuel fears of another devastating regional conflict.

But beyond the fighting in northern Ethiopia, a geopolitical struggle is unfolding over the country's ambition to secure access to the sea, and whether recognizing Somaliland could offer a solution.

Speaking on i24NEWS' Middle East Now, Ethiopia's ambassador to Israel, Tesfaye Yetaye Anteneh, said Eritrean troops had crossed into Ethiopian territory and remained stationed in several northern localities.

"The Eritrean troops crossed the border and violated the Ethiopian sovereignty," Anteneh said, demanding their immediate withdrawal.

According to the ambassador, Eritrean forces remain in five localities in the Irob area of northern Ethiopia, despite demands from Addis Ababa that they leave.

"The international community should pressure Eritrea to pull its troops from Ethiopia," he said, adding that Ethiopian forces were taking measures to safeguard the country's territorial integrity.

Eritrea has rejected Ethiopia's accusations, accusing Addis Ababa of pursuing an "unprovoked war of aggression" against its neighbor. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government of using the conflict as a pretext to seize the strategic Eritrean port of Assab and restore Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea.

Eritrea has also denied allegations that it is supporting Tigrayan rebel forces, although its response did not directly address the reported presence of Eritrean troops inside Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, renewed fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan rebels has threatened the fragile peace agreement that ended the country's devastating civil war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022.

The latest hostilities have seen Ethiopian government forces regain control of large parts of Tigray, including its regional capital, Mekelle.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has since established a new caretaker administration, although fears persist that the fighting could develop into a wider regional confrontation.

Ethiopia's bid for sea access

Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea gained independence in 1993, leaving Africa's second-most-populous country heavily dependent on neighboring Djibouti for maritime trade.

Anteneh described the lack of direct sea access as increasingly unsustainable for a rapidly growing country with a population exceeding 130 million.

"It is an economic imperative. It is an existential one," the ambassador said, emphasizing that Ethiopia was seeking maritime access through negotiations and mutually beneficial agreements.

One potential solution lies in Somaliland, the self-governing territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991.

Somaliland controls the strategic Port of Berbera along the Gulf of Aden, offering Ethiopia a potentially valuable alternative trade corridor.

In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding proposing Ethiopian access to the coastline, alongside the possibility of diplomatic recognition. However, the agreement provoked fierce opposition from Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory.

Despite these negotiations, Ethiopia has stopped short of recognizing Somaliland, even after Israel became the first United Nations member state to formally recognize its independence in December 2025.

Why Ethiopia is reluctant to recognize Somaliland

Asked why Addis Ababa had not followed Israel's lead, Ambassador Anteneh pointed to the threat posed by Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist organization operating in Somalia.

"The moment, for example, Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland, the Somali government will request Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from Somalia," he warned.

Ethiopia maintains a military presence in Somalia as part of regional counterterrorism operations, and Anteneh argued that recognition could jeopardize those efforts.

"Al-Shabaab will get a free ride to attack both Somalia and Somaliland," he said, warning that attacks could spill over into Ethiopia.

The ambassador described the issue as a delicate diplomatic balancing act, suggesting that Ethiopia's national security concerns currently outweigh the potential economic advantages of recognizing Somaliland.

However, that assessment has been challenged by Somaliland officials and commentators, who argue that recognition would strengthen, rather than undermine, regional security.

Somaliland pushes back against Ethiopia's concerns

Speaking on i24NEWS' Middle East Now, Saeed Ibrahim, editor of the Somaliland Chronicle, rejected the Ethiopian ambassador's explanation.

"I'm sure the ambassador is being incredibly diplomatic," Ibrahim said, highlighting Somaliland's record of preventing Al-Shabaab from establishing a significant operational foothold within its territory.

"If Al-Shabaab, you know, is an actual factor that holds Ethiopia back, I'll leave it up to the ambassador that I just don't agree with him," Ibrahim said.

He also pointed to recent remarks by Somaliland's president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, who reaffirmed his government's opposition to any developments that could destabilize Ethiopia.

Ibrahim expressed confidence that Ethiopia and Somaliland would eventually resume negotiations over maritime access, arguing that their economic and strategic interests remained closely aligned.

Somaliland's ambassador to Israel, Dr. Mohamed Hagi, offered an even stronger rebuttal in an October 15 post on X, directly challenging the argument that recognition would expose Ethiopia to greater security threats.

"I am convinced the opposite is true: Ethiopia stands to gain enormous strategic, economic, and security benefits by recognising Somaliland, with zero security threat," Hagi wrote.

The ambassador accused Somalia's government in Mogadishu of increasingly aligning itself with Ethiopia's regional rivals, arguing that those relationships posed a greater strategic danger to Addis Ababa than Somaliland's independence.

He also highlighted Somaliland's record in combating militancy and piracy.

"Somaliland's people and government have prevented Al-Shabaab and piracy from establishing the safe havens they exploit elsewhere," Hagi wrote, describing Somaliland as "a strategic asset, not a security liability."

Hagi further argued that African peacekeeping forces could not remain in Somalia indefinitely, and that Ethiopia should develop a long-term security strategy rather than rely on its existing troop deployments.

According to Hagi, recognizing Somaliland would accelerate Ethiopia's economic growth, strengthen its regional influence and expand its strategic reach across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea.

The disagreement comes as Somaliland is enjoying renewed international attention following remarks by US President Donald Trump describing it as a "totally different country" from Somalia.

The comments sparked celebrations in Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa, where residents waved American and Somaliland flags, hoping Washington would follow Israel in recognizing the territory's independence.

Although no formal American policy change has been announced, Ibrahim described Trump's remarks as an encouraging diplomatic development.

"The fact that, again, the president of the United States has actually uttered those words was incredibly refreshing," he said.

Israel's recognition has also introduced a new dimension to the regional dispute, potentially placing Jerusalem in a position to facilitate closer cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland.

Anteneh emphasized Ethiopia's longstanding strategic partnership with Israel, highlighting opportunities for cooperation in defense technology, satellite systems, agriculture and water management.

"We have very strong bilateral relations, a strategic partnership between our two countries," he said.

However, he did not confirm any specific Israeli involvement in Ethiopia's maritime negotiations or its escalating confrontation with Eritrea.

For Ethiopia, the challenge remains balancing its economic need for maritime access against the potential diplomatic and security consequences of recognizing Somaliland.

For Somaliland, that same need represents an opportunity to secure recognition from one of Africa's most influential countries.

With Ethiopia's civil war threatening to ignite a broader regional confrontation, and rival powers competing for influence around the Red Sea, the dispute over Somaliland has become much more than a question of diplomatic recognition.

It is increasingly a contest over the future of the entire Horn of Africa.