War, oil prices and the midterms: Trump’s political gamble – analysis

Donald Trump is facing a ticking clock.Not from the Iranians, as whatever remains of their leadership might claim.

The clock is November’s mid-term elections.

Typically, the party in power in the White House loses seats in Congress in the midterms. The size of the losses is generally linked to how far underwater the president’s approval rating is.

Trump sported historically unpopular ratings heading into the 2018 midterms, and while a Republican Senate was able to shore up its slim majority, Democrats made a 41-seat gain in the House, taking over the lower chamber and making the U.S. president’s political life miserable for the final two years of his first term.

Which brings us to now.

While the Trump administration claims the issue of affordability is one spun by Democrats for political gain and not reflective of the reality of everyday Americans, the polling shows otherwise. Trump, who has long been trusted on the economy for than Democrats, and who made it a centerpiece of his reelection campaign, is facing major headway heading into the midterms, with polling showing the electorate uneasy about the economy, and laying the blame largely on the White House.

Some critics may say launching a war will serve as a needed political distraction from domestic problems. But the reality is that it will only exacerbate them.

A significant portion of Trump’s base has no affinity for American involvement in foreign conflicts, following Trump’s longstanding position on the matter.

But even if they’re willing to understand or forgive his entry into a war with the Islamic Republic, there’s still the pocketbook issue, and rising oil prices adding to struggles with food and housing costs aren’t going to win over any voters in the middle, or those who just might sit the midterms out.

Trump might take a look at the polling and waive it off, as he’s done throughout his political life, or say that it will improve once he can fully execute his vision.

But what he won’t be able to do is avoid negative messaging from congressional Republicans. There have been cracks here and there so far, but by and large, the GOP has backed Trump in his pursuit of long-term change in Iran, as part of his reshaping of the Middle East.

If the war drags on, though, and congress members see their own political futures start to come more into doubt due to disapproval over the war, its economic impact, and the resources it takes away from domestic priorities, their loyalties to Trump will be further tested. And if all they have left to lose is an endorsement they may not necessarily want at that point, then all bets are off.

This is the clock on Trump. If it’s a four-five week war, as he and his administration has said, he may not ever hear the tick tock. But if it starts to resemble anything like the type of forever war he has long decried, and the economy doesn’t see an unexpected boost, the clock on Trump’s presidency may very well effectively expire in November.