Hezbollah poses greater immediate threat to Israel than Iran - analysis

Hezbollah is, at the moment, posing a bigger security threat to Israelis than Iran.

Yes, Iran’s ballistic missiles are by far more destructive than Hezbollah’s missiles, rockets, and drones combined. But Iran is firing every few hours 2-3 missiles at a time, most of which are intercepted. Hezbollah is firing around triple that in multiple barrages per hour. Do the math.

Despite Israel significantly degrading its capabilites until the November 2024 ceasefire, and since then, and the Lebanese government’s announcement that it had successfully disarmed Hezbollah south of the Litani River, Hezbollah has so far succeeded in resuming its attacks on northern Israel at a rate relatively similar to 2024, with a large portion of the rocket and drone attacks originating from south of the Litani River. It will be interesting to see how long they can keep up the current pace.

The main difference from back then is that now, Israeli forces are deeply positioned across southern Lebanon, posing as a buffer between Hezbollah forces and Israel’s northern border communities. If two years ago, Hezbollah targeted civilian homes with anti-tank guided missiles on a daily basis, now it’s the IDF troops who are absorbing those attacks.

Indeed, Hezbollah has resumed launching rockets and drones at the border communities, albeit with fewer rockets in each barrage, but it was the ATGM attacks that forced over 100,000 Israelis to evacuate their homes. With IDF troops positioned along southern Lebanon, that is currently not the case.

Similar to 2024, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have fled southern Lebanon (those who had homes to return to) since Hezbollah joined the war last Monday, according to the UN. But unlike two years ago, no decision has been made by Israeli political and military leaders to evacuate the northern border communities. Obviously, if the attacks intensify, that could change.

Israel’s new defense doctrine is proving itself on the ground. Under this doctrine, in the absence of geographical strategic depth, the IDF is seizing enemy territory and posing as a buffer, so that if there is any short-range attack, the troops will absorb the damage, not the civilians.

Until Hezbollah no longer poses a security threat to northern Israel, with a verifiable effort by the Lebanese Armed forces in disarming Hezbollah and preventing ANY military attack, alongside significant assurances to Israel, IDF troops are likely to remain in southern Lebanon even after the current war with Hezbollah is over, whenever that may be.