The worst-case scenario for the Arab Parties - analysis

While the final outcome of Tuesday's elections remains unclear and at a potential deadlock between the political blocs, one thing can be said for certain: the big winners are Israel's Arab parties.

By every measurement, the Arab parties outperformed themselves compared to any previous election. Most importantly, the voter turnout was the highest ever, and is believed to be even higher than in the general population. This time, the Arab voters actually did "flock to the polling stations," to reference Netanyahu from 2015.

Additionally, both Arab parties reached a combined historic result of 19 seats, 4 more than their previous record in 2020. The Islamist Ra'am party received 8 seats, nearly doubling their previous record.

Listening to the speeches of the Arab party leaders on Tuesday after the exit polls figures starting coming in, it could seem like they were the ones who were going to be tasked with forming coalition, and not Netanyahu or Eisenkot.

Obviously, that's not going to happen, but their joy stems from the understanding that they now have the leverage to give the Eisenkot bloc a majority, bringing his recommendations to the president from 48 to 67, enough for Eisenkot to launch a swift takeover of the Knesset even without a confirmed government.

On Wednesday, Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said: "We are ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government. Against a government of bloodshed, against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion, we offer a completely different alternative. The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership. No less than that, and no more than that."

Throughout the campaign, the leaders of all four parties in the Eisenkot Bloc said they refuse to rely on the Arab votes in forming a coalition. Eisenkot was the only one who left an opening, setting four for any party joining his coalition: accepting Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, the values of the Declaration of Independence, a duty of service (military or civilian), and calling Hamas a terror organization.

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas had already accepted the first three condition. On Tuesday evening, after the exit polls results came in, I gave Abbas the opportunity to meet the fourth condition. He refused. However, he did hint that he might make such a statement, if he sees that his party's support will ensure the establishment of a new government.

Given the uncertain results of Tuesday's vote, there are currently three prevailing scenarios: a unity government without the Arabs, an Eisenkot government relying on the Arab parties' support, and renewed elections.

The first option isn't ideal for the Arab parties, but they would still be a political force to reckon with, given their 19 seats. The second scenario is the ideal one, clearly. But it's the third option that really has them worried.

The latest investigation into alleged foreign election interference in support of the Arab parties is already being used by Netanyahu's Likud party to delegitimize any prospect of including an Arab party in the coalition or even relying on their recommendation to the president to take over the Knesset.

Arabs are 21.1% of Israel’s population, but only 18% of eligible voters, because the community skews younger. If they were represented proportionally, with full and equal turnout and every vote going to Arab parties, they would receive about 22 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.

The Arab parties are currently at a record 19 seats. Arab turnout yesterday is reported to have been at or above the national rate, so at least three seats’ worth of Arab votes went elsewhere, mostly to Jewish parties. Part of that comes from the Druze, who are counted as Arabs in official statistics and vote heavily for Jewish parties.

There is no certainty that the Arab parties would be able to recreate such a result once again. It's possible, since it just happened. But historically, the odds are against them.

That's why we're seeing openness by the Arab parties to give all the necessary support to the Eisenkot bloc, including downplaying demands on the Palestinian issue, to ensure the Netanyahu government is replaced. The question is, will that be enough to avoid another round of elections. The jury is still out on that.