Iran's nuclear timeline remains one year despite US-Israeli air campaign - report
Unless Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium is seized or destroyed, the window for weaponization will likely remain at nine months to a year, Reuters reports
Despite two months of intensive military operations, United States intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s nuclear "breakout" timeline remains unchanged from the one-year estimate established last summer, according to sources familiar with the matter to Reuters.
The reports that the durability of Tehran's nuclear timeline, even after the launch of President Trump’s campaign to dismantle the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, suggests that air strikes alone have failed to eliminate the core threat.
Unless Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium is seized or destroyed, the window for weaponization will likely remain at nine months to a year.
While the US and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28, the attacks were largely focused on conventional military infrastructure and the defense industrial base. Israel successfully struck a uranium-processing facility in late March, but US munitions have primarily targeted leadership centers and the military's ability to protect its assets.
A critical intelligence gap remains regarding approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes much of this material is hidden within a deep underground tunnel network at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center. Because inspections were suspended following the outbreak of war, the UN watchdog cannot verify its location.
White House spokesperson Olivia Wales reiterated that President Trump "does not bluff" regarding his commitment to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. However, the stalemate has forced US officials to consider higher-risk maneuvers.
These reportedly include potential ground raids to physically retrieve the highly enriched uranium from the Isfahan tunnel complex.
Some officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, argue that the nuclear threat is indirectly diminished because US strikes have decimated Iran’s air defenses, leaving its remaining facilities exposed.