Ukraine: Allies increasingly pessimistic of retaking territory

Two months after the launch of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Kyiv's allies believe that its chances of regaining control of important Russian-occupied territories are diminishing. 

This is what senior American and Western officials told CNN on Tuesday.

"The Ukrainians are still going to see over the next couple of weeks whether there's any chance of progress, but I think it's very, very unlikely that they're going to actually make any inroads that will change the balance of power in this conflict," a Western diplomat told the U.S. channel.

"We're living in the most difficult moment of the war," said Democratic Congressman Mike Quigley, who recently attended meetings in Europe with U.S. commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. 

The main challenge for Ukrainian forces is their difficulty in breaking through Russia's multi-layered defense lines in the east and south of the country, where there are tens of thousands of mines and networks of vast trenches. After heavy losses, Ukrainian forces had to suspend several units in order to review their organization.

"The Russians have several lines of defense, and the Ukrainian forces haven't really crossed the first line," said the senior diplomat. "Even if they continue to fight in the coming weeks, the likelihood of real advances is low. If it didn't happen in the first eight weeks of fighting, it's hard to imagine it being possible as Kyiv's forces become increasingly exhausted."

Officially, however, Washington is trying to remain optimistic. A senior American official said the U.S. recognized the difficulties facing Ukrainian forces, but still held out hope for progress. 

"We all understand that it's harder and slower than anyone would like - including the Ukrainians - but we still think there's time and space for them to move forward," the U.S. official told CNN.

Many officials said that the approach of autumn, with its worsening weather and therefore combat conditions, gave Ukrainian forces a limited window of opportunity to move forward. 

Westerners also point out that slow progress has revealed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into mechanized combat units, with sometimes as little as eight weeks' training on Western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems.

According to a senior U.S. military official, the lack of progress on the ground is one of the reasons why Ukrainian forces are now attacking more often inside Russian territory, "in an attempt to show the vulnerability" of the enemy.