Russian forces make minimal gains despite record casualties, missile launches in July - report
Russia suffered an average of 1,132 casualties for every square kilometer of territory it actually seized in July, according to the Institute for the Study of War's latest assessment.
The Institute for the Study of War's August assessment found Russian forces advanced at a rate unchanged since before the Spring-Summer offensive began, while suffering the highest monthly casualty toll of the year. In their report, the ISW says Russian forces have advanced just 37.85 square kilometers (14.6 square miles) of territory in July 2026, an average of 1.22 square kilometers (0.47 square miles) per day, a rate that has not changed significantly since February 2026, before the offensive began in mid-March. Including infiltrations, Russian forces advanced or infiltrated into about 121.56 square kilometers (46.9 square miles), still a fraction of the 455.74 square kilometers (175.96 square miles) Russia seized in July 2025.
Continued counterattacks, intermediate-range strike campaigns, and drone dominance allow Ukraine to constrain Russia's rate of advance and its ability to field mechanized vehicles. Russian forces conducted a few mechanized assaults in isolated areas in July, but these did not result in meaningful gains. ISW noted the Kremlin has been optimizing the Russian military for positional rather than maneuver warfare for years, but Ukrainian adaptations are slowing Russian advances significantly compared with previous years.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered 42,860 casualties in July 2026, a new monthly high for the war, up from 26,090 in February 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces have suffered almost 700,000 killed and about 1.6 million total casualties since February 2022. ISW calculated that Russian forces suffered an average of 353 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized or infiltrated in July, and 1,132 casualties per square kilometer actually seized.
Even accounting for Russia's own exaggerated claims, ISW said Moscow's claimed rate of advance amounted to only about footpace, roughly 18.49 square kilometers (7.2 square miles) per day.
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The Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin newswire TASS both made exaggerated claims on July 31 about the number of settlements allegedly seized. The ISW assessed that these claims were part of a campaign aimed to convince both Russians and the West that Ukrainian lines are collapsing, that further Western support is futile, and to persuade the Russian public that the war's costs, including casualties, economic strain, and Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, are worthwhile.
In addition to the record casualty rate, Russian forces also launched a record 376 missiles against Ukraine in July, the highest monthly total since large-scale strikes began, up from 288 in February, the previous high. ISW noted Russia is now firing more missiles than it produces monthly, increasingly relying on S-400 and Zirkon stockpiles to offset shortfalls in ballistic missile production.
On the ground, Russian forces continued offensive operations across Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia but made no confirmed advances in most areas during the reporting period.
Russian forces are increasingly targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, striking gas stations, warehouses, and logistics centers. Odesa officials reported a Russian strike damaged a high-rise apartment building on August 1, injuring at least three people, while Dnipropetrovsk officials reported a strike on a civilian minibus injured at least seven people. Ukrainian postal service Nova Poshta reported Russian strikes destroyed its sorting terminal in Poltava City and damaged facilities in Haisyn, Vinnytsia Oblast.