Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a majority; a unity coalition may prevent another election - analysis

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot both delivered victory speeches to their constituents early Wednesday morning.

In Eisenkot's speech, he prematurely eulogized Netanyahu and declared that the public had voted to end his tenure. Had he waited half an hour to start his speech when more results were in, perhaps he would have been more careful.

Netanyahu defiantly defended all his current coalition partners, mercilessly mocked the rival camp, and called for a right-wing nationalist government. Had he waited, perhaps it would have become clearer that he lost his 64-MK majority in this election.

The truth is that neither side won. Simple math: Neither of them have the 61 MKs out of 120 needed for a stable government.

So what happens now? Is Israel doomed to go to perpetual elections?

The answer is it depends on the success of the president. Which president? Three of them, actually.

President Isaac Herzog can try to condition granting Netanyahu a mandate on him making a serious effort to draft a national unity government with Eizenkot as defense minister, Naftali Bennett as foreign minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir and Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties as spectators in the opposition.

President Donald Trump can do the same, knowing that a unity government in Israel can help him advance his foreign policy at a time when his domestic agenda could be handcuffed by Congress.

And Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian can continue to reject compromises and bring about another round of war with Israel and the United States.

Wars are good excuses to break campaign promises, which Eizenkot must do to prevent an election in which he would likely no longer be his bloc's candidate for prime minister. He could be prime minister in the second half of the term, without taking the risk of another race.

It is, of course, a risk to trust Netanyahu to hand over power after he did not honor an agreement with Benny Gantz. But Netanyahu could be made the government’s candidate to replace Herzog as president in July 2028, shortly before Trump's term ends, perhaps replaced by a president less friendly to Israel.

Netanyahu’s criminal trial, which was the initial reason for boycotting him, has been petering out anyway.

Such a government would enable Eizenkot to keep his promise about forming g a coalition without the haredim that could pass a tougher draft law.

And what about the Arabs, whose impressive showing in the election cannot be ignored? Banishing Ben-Gvir would be a victory for them. They would not join the government or the coalition, but vast initiatives to fight inter-Arab crime and poverty could be initiated and well-funded, overseen by the Knesset Interior and Public Security committees, led by Arab MKs.

This scenario is not what Netanyahu or Eizenkot called for in their victory speeches. But it could bring the stability and reconciliation needed at a time of war.

Gil Hoffman is i24's election analyst and the author of the book The Blood Libel Machine: Exposing the Anti-Israel Hate Network and How to Fight Back, which is available on Amazon