Why Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu may be too little, too late - analysis

Beyond the question of why US President Donald Trump finally decided to give a full-throated re-election endorsement to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - reportedly in part due to Trump being convinced by new polling numbers showing Netanyahu can succeed - is the question of whether it makes a difference.

There are only two logic-driven reasons to provide an endorsement. One is to drive the candidate's base to the polls. The other is to sway the undecided voters.

A poll by KAN, Israel's public broadcaster, shows that just one week before the election, some 30% of Israeli voters are undecided.

Firstly, that's to be taken with a hefty grain of salt. Israel, much like the United States, is operating in a polarized environment when it comes to its leadership. The overwhelming majority of voters made up their minds long ago about whether or not they support Netanyahu.

If the 30% figure is anywhere close to accurate, it almost assuredly reflects the uncertainty of which party voters will support within their preferred bloc. Choices abound in both the government and opposition blocs, and only a small fraction of the undecided votes likely relate to whether a tally will go to Netanyahu or one of his current coalition partners.

Might Trump's endorsement sway a seat or two to Likud? It's conceivable. Will those seats come at the expenses of Netanyahu's coalition partners, largely negating the impact? Almost unquestionably.

The other factor, though, as mentioned earlier, is whether the endorsement will light a fire under Netanyahu's base. That is doubtful for two reasons.

The first is that if you're still in Netanyahu's corner at this point, you need no fire lit under you. It's King Bibi or bust. Plus, the whole country shuts down on Election Day, anyway. It's not like the United States, with a stream of early voting and mail-in efforts and arranging transportation to get voters to the polls.

The second reason is that a significant portion of Netanyahu's bloc doesn't see Trump's support through the same prism of a couple of years ago. The Trump brand, once worth its weight in gold in Israel, has been tarnished in the eyes of some, including, and especially, on the right, for failing to live up to the early standards set in terms of unflinching backing and commitment to the Jewish state, even as Trump continues to go further than anyone else has.

Netanyahu has long billed himself as the only Israeli prime minister who can stand up to pressure from American leadership and ultimately bend the White House to his will, and has made it a cornerstone of previous campaign efforts.

No doubt he will attempt to parlay Trump's implicit threat - that any other Israeli leader besides Bibi will lead to a Trump withdrawal from the Iran arena.

But Netanyahu has always made a stronger case when there is a bogeyman in the White House, rather than a staunch ally, and a war-weary Israeli public isn't exactly itching to go back into a conflict with Iran that has no apparent end, especially as the prize for a vote.

Trump's endorsement certainly won't hurt Netanyahu. But the extent to which it will make a difference will likely be negligible.