Democrat's midterm gains put Trump’s Iran war and US-Israel ties under pressure - analysis

“I've got a pen, and I've got a phone.”

That’s what Barack Obama said after Democrats took a shellacking in the 2014 midterms, as the then-president described his lame duck strategy of using executive orders to shape domestic policy and the insulated power of the presidency to carry out foreign policy.

For one thing, it led to the Iran nuclear accord, which the Senate never ratified.

And so here we are, full circle, as an Iran-focused president sizes up his own options for the final two years of his presidency, facing a staunch opposition on Capitol Hill.

It’s not as if Trump needs persuading on the issuance of executive orders or an education on the ability to will into existence new foreign policy. He’s got plenty of experience on both fronts.

But there are limits.

For the US-Israel relationship, there may be just enough support for broad partnerships, like the one being proposed to reshape the military alliance, still to be approved by the new Congress. Ironically, the massive edge Democrats will hold means the growing anti-Israel wing can still be kept at bay when needed, as a slew of pro-Israel Democrats won their elections on Tuesday.

But even that will now likely hinge on who is in charge in Israel. Sen. Chris Coons, who will now take over as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a tweet on Tuesday that he applauds Gadi Eisenkot and other Israeli opposition leaders “for their willingness to make courageous choices.” Not a word for Benjamin Netanyahu. It’s telling, even if subtle.

And then there’s the Iran war itself.

While American officials from both the political and military spheres have praised Israel as a partner during the war, there’s little doubt that in the bigger picture, the conflict, due to its inconclusive nature, more than the principle behind it, has caused lasting damage, specifically in the form of higher gas prices, which could yet lead to Israel being scapegoated by Trump or mainstream Republicans for Tuesday’s election results.

As to the war’s end, Democrats seem intent on forcing it come January. Trump may be able to veto war powers resolutions, but the funding spicket will get cut off, and there is no vetoing that.

Expect a burst of military action in the lame duck period.

Tuesday’s results will also likely cost Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth his job, as Democrats and Trump go scalp-hunting.

Democrats are also almost certain to launch investigations of the business ties of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to Middle East governments, which could impact their abilities to press for further action in Gaza via the Board of Peace.

The board itself is also going to come under the Democratic investigatory microscope, putting its future on more uncertain ground, which will have an untold impact on the future of the Strip and a potential resumption of Israel-Hamas hostilities.

The one winner on the Republican side might well be Sec. of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, who has largely stayed above criticism tied to the Iran war and Trump’s foreign policy.

His closest potential political rival for the 2028 presidential nomination, JD Vance, is going to find it much more difficult to step out from Trump’s shadow, even as Vance opposed the Iran war.

Ironically, that could end up salvaging the U.S.-Israel relationship, as Rubio is a dyed-in-the-wool Israel supporter. If Vance accedes to the presidency in 2028, given his past comments on Israel, one could likely kiss that relationship goodbye, regardless of who controls Congress.

By the time the new Congress takes control in January, there may be some clarity on the political situation in Jerusalem. Some skeptical Democrats in Congress may choose to support a new government, though it’s far from a guarantee.

But the bottom line is this: While Trump may be able to protect Israel in an emergency for the next two years, the bipartisan relationship will never be the same after Tuesday. Even if Trump makes good use of that phone.