Mike Rogers asks AIPAC to stand down in Michigan Senate race - analysis

The news of a reported rupture between Mike Rogers, the Republican former House member and Senate candidate in Michigan, and AIPAC, is an indication of the pro-Israel organization’s political toxicity among Democrats.

Rogers is said to have told AIPAC he doesn’t want their help in his general election campaign against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who used AIPAC’s support of his primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, as a cudgel against her, narrowly advancing while AIPAC shelled out $30 million to try to defeat him.

One can argue whether Rogers’ method here is a savvy one. To think a pro-Israel Republican would tell AIPAC he’s better off without them – that they are a net-negative in his mind – is shocking.

It may also be the best thing possible.

Before the 2022 election cycle, AIPAC didn’t endorse candidates and didn’t directly fund them, either. Since the formation of its United Democracy Project super PAC, spending has gone from $26 million in the 2022 cycle, to $38 million in 2024, up to $62 million so far this year, with roughly half of that thrown down the drain against El-Sayed, according to the OpenSecrets tracker.

While intuitively that money is needed now more than ever due to Israel’s unpopularity in the Democratic party, AIPAC’s success has been a mixed bag at best, and its foray into Democratic primaries, often with ads that don’t mention Israel, and sometimes supporting the most radical primary candidate in a general election hedge, have drawn fire from critics and even some friends.

There is zero doubt that antisemites are going to paint any loss for their candidate against someone with pro-Israel bona fides as having been engineered by the Jews, whether AIPAC’s money flows into the race or not. That’s the nature of antisemites, who see a Jewish conspiracy behind every door.

But, El-Sayed barely made it through the primary, as unsettling as his victory is. There is already a movement among Michigan’s Jewish leaders, including Democrats, to steer voters to Rogers in the general election.

If Rogers can’t defeat El-Sayed, despite the massive financial advantages the Republican party has, and despite El-Sayed’s deficiencies, it’s questionable what difference AIPAC funding would play.

Perhaps the best possible outcome is for AIPAC to listen to Rogers, sit this one out, and watch a Republican defeat an anti-Israel Democrat without them, just as anti-Israel candidates were consistently defeated for decades without an AIPAC endorsement or direct funding.

That’s not an admission that AIPAC doesn’t deserve to fund candidates in the same way, every super PAC does. It’s simply a realization, as difficult as it is to swallow, of its current standing, and the possibility that a candidate it supports in a crucial race can’t afford to be weighed down while AIPAC insists it belongs.