Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil’s presidential election heads to runoff
Bolsonaro outperforms polling forecasts to take 47% of the vote against Lula’s 45%, setting up an October 25 showdown with major implications for Brazil’s economy and foreign relations
Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff on October 25, the country’s Superior Electoral Court announced overnight, after neither President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nor Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured the majority required for a first-round victory.
With nearly all ballots counted, Bolsonaro led with 47% of the vote, compared with Lula’s 45%. The outcome reversed earlier polling forecasts that had given the incumbent an advantage of roughly three percentage points.
“Brazil wants change and I am very pleased with the results,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasília, declaring the “end of Lula’s Workers’ Party era.”
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential term. Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, now enters the decisive round with fresh momentum in the race to lead Latin America’s largest economy.
Beyond their differences over the economy and domestic policy, the candidates offer sharply contrasting visions for Brazil’s international role, particularly its relationship with Israel.
Flávio Bolsonaro has made support for Israel a prominent part of his foreign-policy platform, following the approach of his father, who cultivated close relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu during his presidency.
During a visit to Israel in January, Flávio pledged to move Brazil’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem within six months of taking office.
“I will move the embassy to Jerusalem during the first six months of my mandate,” he told JNS. During the visit, he also went to the Western Wall and expressed support for Israel in terms of shared religious values.
The pledge revives an initiative announced by Jair Bolsonaro during his presidency that was never implemented. Moving the embassy would mark a significant shift in Brazilian policy on Jerusalem, whose status remains a central issue in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Flávio has continued to emphasize the relationship throughout his campaign. At a recent meeting with the Brazilian Jewish umbrella organization Conib, he promised to visit Israel early in a potential presidency, echoing his father’s visit in 2019.
His position also fits his broader ambition to bring Brazil closer to Washington and other conservative governments in Latin America.
Under Lula, relations between Brazil and Israel deteriorated sharply over the war in Gaza.
A major diplomatic confrontation erupted in February 2024 after Lula compared Israel’s military campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust. Israel condemned the remarks, and then-Foreign Minister Israel Katz declared Lula unwelcome until he retracted them.
Brazil recalled its ambassador, Frederico Meyer, for consultations. In May 2024, Lula removed Meyer from the Israeli posting and reassigned him to Geneva.
Brazil did not sever diplomatic relations with Israel, but the ambassador’s withdrawal marked a downgrade in ties. Lula’s government has also reiterated support for Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution.
Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Trump, favors closer alignment with Washington. Lula emphasizes an independent foreign policy and stronger economic partnerships with China and countries across the Global South.
Trump hosted Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House and expressed support for Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for conspiring to overturn his defeat in the 2022 election.
US tariffs and diplomatic pressure on Lula’s government prompted the incumbent to accuse Washington of attempting to interfere in Brazil’s democratic process.
The candidates have also clashed over American interest in Brazil’s natural resources and critical minerals. Bolsonaro welcomes closer cooperation, while Lula stresses national sovereignty and control over the country’s resources.
The Bolsonaro family secured another important result in the congressional elections, with electoral authorities confirming Michelle Bolsonaro’s election to the Senate representing the Federal District, which includes Brasília.
Michelle, 44, the former president’s wife and Flávio’s stepmother, is a prominent evangelical figure who has never previously held public office.
She joined Flávio at his home ahead of the runoff campaign, appearing to put aside a public dispute between them earlier this year.
Her victory expands the family’s influence in Congress and strengthens the right’s position as the presidential contest enters its final phase.