Turnaround at PolyMarket after the exit polls: Netanyahu leads in the odds to become Prime Minister

Despite the complex exit poll results and the lack of a clear majority for Netanyahu's bloc, traders on Polimarket are still giving Benjamin Netanyahu the highest chance of being Israel's next prime minister. As of Wednesday night, Netanyahu leads the prediction market with 48%, while Gadi Eisenkot stands at 33.5%.

Far behind are Naftali Bennett with 7% and Avigdor Lieberman with 2.7%.

Market trading volume has already reached approximately $70.8 million, with the possibility of Netanyahu becoming the next prime minister alone accounting for more than $23.1 million in trading volume.

The Polymarket graph shows sharp fluctuations throughout the election campaign. At certain times, Eisenkot led over Netanyahu, but towards the end of the election and after the publication of the exit polls, significant changes were recorded in traders' assessments.

It is important to emphasize that Polymarket is not a public opinion poll. The percentages shown on the platform are derived from the prices of contracts bought and sold by market participants, and therefore reflect the traders’ assessments at that moment and can change rapidly according to political developments.

The picture in the prediction market is particularly interesting against the backdrop of the exit polls, in which Likud remains the largest party, but the Netanyahu bloc does not achieve 61 seats in most of them. In the prediction market, on the other hand, Netanyahu is still ranked first in the question of who will be prime minister after the elections.